Friday, January 23, 2015

LaMarcus Aldridge Out 6-8 Weeks - Thumb Surgery

The Portland Trail Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge for a while, after the All-Star had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb.  Aldridge injured his thumb on Monday, banging it against DeMarcus Cousins knee.  The Blazers will have to turn to Chris Kaman, Thomas Robinson and Meyers Leonard to fill the hole.  Kaman is the only one you want to own in fantasy basketball.  Portland is 0-2 in his absence, losing to the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics.

The Blazers could get Robin Lopez back before the NBA All-Star Game!

Damian Lillard will carry the team offensively, putting up 20+ points in both contests.  Nicolas Batum will show signs or greatness, like he did against the Suns with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists, but is inconsistent, and follows up a game like that with a scoreless night against the Celtics!  He re-injured his wrist and could miss time.  Wesley Matthews will continue to be himself and average 16.5 points and knock down three pointers.

LMA has been a top 20 fantasy player this season, at 23 points and 10 rebounds per game.  If you own him in fantasy basketball, there is very little out there to help for the two months he will be out. However, in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues, the following guys are PF eligible and under 65% owned:

In Yahoo leagues, you can look to add Kaman, Enes Kanter and Omer Asik as well.  

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Box Pool Odds

Based on the final score from 256 regular season games from the 2014 NFL season, the following information should help you understand your odds of winning that final score jackpot, in your Super Bowl Box Pool this year! 

What boxes did you end up with and how much did you pay per box?

Scores from ESPN
    Super Bowl XLIX Box Pool Heat Map
  • 0 appeared 75 times (15%)
  • 1 appeared 48 times (9%)
  • 2 appeared 19 times (4%)
  • 3 appeared 71 times (14%)
  • 4 appeared 82 times (16%)
  • 5 appeared 17 times (3%)
  • 6 appeared 39 times (8%)
  • 7 appeared 107 times (21%)
  • 8 appeared 26 times (5%)
  • 9 appeared 28 times (5%)

The #7 showed up in 21% of all games played.  18% of the time the winning team showed a 7.  23% of the time the losing team showed a 7.

The #4 was next on the list, showing in 16% of games played.  The winning team saw this number 14% of the time, but losers saw a four in 18% of games played.

The #s 3,4 & 0 all showed up in between 14% and 16% of games played.

You will want to stay away from 2s and 5s as they showed in less than 5% of all regular season games.

The 10 playoff games this year have brought a little bit of everything! 7's showed up the most with a count of 4.  We had 1's 6's and 0's three times each and 4's and 5's showed up twice. 2, 3 and 8 showed up a single time.  A playoff game failed to produce a 9 for a final score!

The Seattle Seahawks have played in 18 games this season, including two playoff matchups.  Their games have ended with their final scores ending in a 6 or 0, three times each.  They hit 1, 3, 7, 8 and 9 two times each and even a 4 and a 5 once.  They have yet to finish with a 2.

The New England Patriots have played in 18 games this season including two playoffs matchups.  Their games have ended with their final scores ending in a 1, 3, or 7 three times each.  They hit 4, 5 and 0 two times each and even a 2, 6 and 9 once.  They have yet to finish with an 8.

For a breakdown of the quarters and probabilities based on conference in Super Bowl history, check out the Super Bowl SuckyBox-o-Meter
After hearing people complain "My box sucks!" we decided to determine, once and for all, just how much each box sucks. The following Super Bowl Box Pool odds were derived from compiling all the quarterly results from Super Bowls I thru XLVI.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Russell Wilson Is Happy To Be Playing Away From Seattle

The Super Bowl is played at a neutral site so that neither team playing in the game will have any type of advantage. However I think Seattle does have the advantage playing in Arizona. Yes, of course Seattle has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, playing in front of the 12th man but Russell Wilson is the x-factor in this Super Bowl and numbers don't lie.

Russell Wilson had a very good year, completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,475 yards and 20 touchdowns with just 7 interceptions. His passer rating was 95.0 on the year, but if it wasn't for his road games, his passer rating would be much lower.

In 8 home games this year, Wilson posted a 80.8 passer rating. He threw just 6 touchdowns while being picked off 6 times and only completed 61% of his passes. Even his rushing numbers weren't great. On 61 carries Wilson ran for 326 yards (5.3 avg) and 2 touchdowns.

On the road this year, Wilson posted a passer rating of 107.6. He completed 65% of his passes and threw for 14 touchdowns and just 1 interception. On the ground, he ran 57 times for 523 yards (9.2 avg) and 4 touchdowns.

Tom Brady on the other hand is the exact opposite. He's amazing playing in Foxboro, as he threw for 19 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. His passer rating at home was 103.8. On the road he threw for 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. His passer rating on the road was 90.4.

Even the sacks were on two different levels. At home Brady was sacked just 6 times, but he was sacked 15 times on the road.

Advantage Wilson and the Seahawks? I think so.

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