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Friday, May 22, 2015

Baseball's Luckiest Hitters

Earlier we focused on those MLB players with the worst luck to begin the season, looking at LD% and BABIP.  Now we look at those around the Majors hitting lots of fly balls, and still owning a BABIP above .300. There have been just 27 players since 2010 that finished the season with a FB% greater than 43% and a BABIP over .300. 15 of those happened in 2010 and just Mike Trout last year.

Colby Rasmus has now surpassed Nelson Cruz atop this list, and even with a .314 BABIP, he still owns a .244 BA thanks to 46 K in 123 AB.  The 5th highest K% in the league.

Evan Longoria has joined this list and is one of just 5 in the group to have a HR/FB below 10%.  Troy Tulowitzki and Freddie Freeman are also members of that club.

Thanks to 10 home runs in 12 games, Bryce Harper owns a 35% HR/FB.  Only Ryan Howard and Jim Thome have accomplished that in a full season since 1990. Just 9 times has one owned a 30% HR/FB in that time frame and Howard and Thome own 5 of those 9 seasons.

Colby Rasmus48.70%0.31421.10%
Kris Bryant48.60%0.40613.90%
Justin Upton45.50%0.32322.00%
Nelson Cruz44.70%0.38831.40%
Logan Forsythe44.50%0.3287.50%
Derek Norris44.30%0.3395.90%
Matt Carpenter44.10%0.35113.50%
Bryce Harper43.80%0.37335.70%
Freddie Freeman43.30%0.3749.60%
Stephen Vogt42.90%0.30321.40%
Mike Trout42.50%0.32422.90%
Paul Goldschmidt42.20%0.37421.70%
Evan Longoria42.10%0.3278.30%
Ryan Howard41.40%0.30022.00%
Troy Tulowitzki41.30%0.3334.70%
Alex Gordon41.20%0.31910.00%
Miguel Cabrera40.70%0.36320.00%
J.D. Martinez40.60%0.32718.60%
Chris Davis40.50%0.31025.00%
Mark Trumbo40.20%0.31314.60%

Stats via FanGraphs MLB Baseball Meme

Baseballs Most Unlucky Hitters

The following is a list of players in the MLB who are hitting line drives in more than 20% of their ABs, but have a BABIP below league average. These are players that you might want to consider holding onto if you own them, or trying to acquire on the cheap as their luck could change, soon....hopefully! 

Baseball Luckiest Hitters - High FB% High BABIP

Jason Kipnis has hit his way off this list.  He is hitting .449 in the month of May, with 9 doubles, 3 home runs and 2 triples.  He has scored 21 runs in 19 games for the Indians. His 34.8 LD% this month has resulted in a .485 BABIP.

Brian Dozier30.90%0.274
Ben Revere30.80%0.283
Curtis Granderson27.50%0.286
Chase Headley27.20%0.275
George Springer25.90%0.253
Ryan Howard25.30%0.300
Josh Harrison25.20%0.277
David Ortiz24.80%0.252
Omar Infante23.90%0.298
Chris Coghlan23.60%0.212
Elvis Andrus23.50%0.254
Nick Castellanos23.40%0.299
Carlos Gonzalez23.20%0.232
Daniel Murphy22.90%0.248
Kyle Seager22.50%0.270
Todd Frazier22.50%0.231
Giancarlo Stanton22.30%0.275
Carlos Beltran21.90%0.282
Johnny Giavotella21.50%0.290
Melky Cabrera21.40%0.264
Hanley Ramirez21.30%0.241
Pablo Sandoval21.10%0.294
Shin-Soo Choo21.10%0.289
Luis Valbuena21.10%0.210
Andrelton Simmons21.00%0.261
Lonnie Chisenhall20.60%0.238
Michael Morse20.50%0.279
Matt Adams20.40%0.287
Billy Hamilton20.20%0.243

Stats via FanGraphs That's The Way Baseball Go

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Fantasy Football RB Stock

For those of you who don't know me, I'm Brett O'Brien, and this is my first piece over here at We Talk Fantasy Sports. Most avid fantasy players agree that good running backs are a major key to victory and the Running Back Carousel was in full effect this offseason. Here are some of the key RB moves over the past few months and whether their stock is on the rise or on the way down, heading into Training Camp.

LeSean McCoy - Buffalo Bills

First off, let me disclaim now that I am a diehard Eagles fan. That being said, I'll try my best to be completely unbiased and look at this from an outside perspective (screw you, Tony Romo.) Shady is no doubt one of the best backs in the league and it raised a lot of eyebrows when Chip Kelly shipped him over to Buffalo in exchange for Kiko Alonso. How much will this trade help the Bills?


Fantasy Football RB Stock - McCoy Bills
This just looks weird - Imgur
Expect their running game to be greatly improved next year. They were ranked 25th in the league with only 1482 rushing yards. Despite running behind the O-Line from The Little Giants next season, I expect LeSean to put up some top rushing numbers and really help Rex Ryan establish his Ground and Pound + Aggressive Defense philosophy over in Buffalo.


I think Shady is going to be one of the top fantasy running backs, once again, but how can you increase the stock on someone who went #1 in most leagues? Yes, his offense might be worse, but he's going to get the ball right around a billion times this season. Barring injury, there's no way a player of that caliber doesn't put up some great fantasy numbers. He might not be the #1 overall pick this year but I wouldn't let Shady slip too far in the first round. Top tier RB1.

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