Tuesday, February 15, 2011

LiLbRo's Fantasy Baseball Busts

John Buck - C - FLA - I feel confident saying John Buck's all-star season in 2010 was a fluke.  Buck was a career .235 hitter coming into last season, never hitting above .242 (hit .247 in 2009 but in only 59 games). I'm not saying he doesn't have a lot of power for a catcher, but hitting 20 home runs this year is a long shot in Florida.  I honestly think there was something in the air in Toronto (Ex - Jose Bautista 54 home runs).  The Marlins offense is young and I don't expect it to be an explosive offense which also hurts Buck's value.  His 409 AB's last year were the most in his career, but he only drew 16 BB's to go along with his 111 K's, not a good ratio.  Expect Buck's .281 BA to drop 30+ points, and I can see him hitting 20+ doubles with about 14 home runs and 50-55 RBI's, which is OK for a catcher, nothing special.


Corey Hart - OF - MIL - Like Buck, Hart is another guy who I think over achieved in 2010.  Also an all-star posting a .283/31/102 season, and because of this many fantasy players will waste an early pick on Hart only to be disappointed.  The guy has talent but he's not the power bat that he showed last season.  He struck out 140 times which I think only happened because he wanted to be a power guy, because only in 2008 did he strike out over 100 times (109).  In 2007 and 2008 he had 23 stolen bases and in 2010 he had 7.  He's not a good average guy and doesn't walk much as his .329 OBP shows.  I expect him to fall back down to earth and have a season similar to his 2008 campaign.  I see him hitting anywhere from .270-.280 with 30+ doubles, 20-25 home runs and 85 RBI.  Again, he's not a big OBP guy so don't expect him to walk much, but you should see his K's drop which is a plus.

Paul Konerko - 1B - CWS - Konerko's 39 home runs were the most he has hit in the past 5 seasons.  He's not getting any younger, as he's going to be 35 on opening day in 2011.  It's hard to imagine at his age he will continue to keep getting better or even match what he did last year.  I'm a fan of Konerko, so I expect a good year from the White Sox first basemen, but he will see a dramatic drop in his offensive numbers in 2011.  He wont hit over .300 again, and wont hit more than 35 home runs or reach the 100 RBI mark in my opinion.  I can see him hitting around .275 with 25-30 homers with around 88 RBI.  Like I said not awful but you can find that in a lot of first basemen this year (especially younger guys).

KeithyP's Sleepers
KeithyP's Busts
LiLbRo's Sleepers