Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 1 - Where It All Begins

NFL Season and Fantasy Football Kick Off
Wednesday September 5th
Dallas Cowboys visit the Superbowl Champion New York Football Giants 
8:30pm EST on NBC


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Fav QB Matchup - Jay Cutler vs Colts
The Colts did nothing to help a terrible defense returning from last year (Vontae Davis should scare me?).  They allowed opponents to complete over 70% of their passes and QBs finished with a 103.9 QB rating on average.  With Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush added to the offense, Cutler has more than enough weapons to dismantle the Colts secondary.  Plus the Colts only picked off 8 passes last year so Cutler can get away with his usual risky throws.  We know the Bears pass protection is horrible but the Colts couldn't even muster 30 sacks last season.  On top of all that, the Bears defense should keep the Colts offense off the field for most of the game.
  • He started slow, but Cutler settled down and hooked up with Marshall 9 times for over 100 yards and a TD, while targeting him 15 times!  21 completions, 333 yards and 2 TDs looks good week in and week out for a QB regularly drafted as the 10-14 QB. 

Fav RB Matchup - LeSean McCoy at Browns
Shady McCoy is a top 5 running back and the Cleveland Browns were 30th in rushing yards allowed last season.  The Browns were also a top 5 passing defense last year so the Eagles game plan will absolutely be built around the run for Week 1. 
  • Shady took 20 carries 110 yards but did not find the endzone in a disaster of a football game that saw 91 PASSING ATTEMPTS!  McCoy did catch 6 of his 9 targets.

    • Honorable Mention: DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart vs Buccaneers 
      • UPDATE: Jonathan Stewert injury leaves him up in the air for week 1. 
        • If either one was guaranteed the full work load, then they would be the favorite.as Tampa was dead last in yards allowed on the ground and allowed 26 rushing TDs, 7 more than the next worse teams(Colts/Bills).  Plus Cam Newton is always there stealing Red Zone TDs.
          • 6 carries for -1 yards, I still blame the coaching staff

Fav WR Matchup - Malcom Floyd at Raiders
Floyd and Rivers really got in rhythm as the season ended last year scoring in 4 or the last 5 games.  Over that span Floyd racked up 24 catches for 455 yards.  Floyd is so hit or miss and probably won't even be started in 90% of leagues, but if there was ever a chance to have a breakout season, this would be the year.  Also, the Raiders were terrible defending the aerial attack last year (only the Vikings allowed more TDs to WR) and Floyd caught 7 passes the final game of last season against them.
  • 4 catches for 66 yards and a TD.  He also make a highlight reel sideline catch.  As a WR3 if Floyd can produce at this rate, fantasy owners will be thrilled.

Fav TE Matchup - Greg Olsen vs Buccaneers
With Jonathan Stewart a question for Week 1, I really like Greg Olsen as does head coach Ron Rivera.  With a ton of focus on the TE in the Panthers offensive scheme this year, Olsen should be poised for a huge season, and what better way to start then with a big week 1 matchup against a mediocre defense.  The Bucs were the leagues worst run defense last season and if they try to force the Panthers to throw, Olsen will be the beneficiary.
  • Olsen caught 6 of his 7 targets but they went for just 56 yards and he failed to score.

    • Originally had Dustin Keller vs Bills here as the Bills were the leagues worst TE defense last season, but a hamstring injury has Keller in question for Week 1.
      • Mark Sanchez had the game of his life and the Jets scored 48 points!  Keller was targetd just once and you have to believe he was not 100%
Fav DEF Matchup - Bears vs Colts
A vicious Bears defense going up against a rookie QB sounds like a fantasy match made in heaven for Chicago owners!  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Colts get shut out and Luck looks like the biggest bust in football history, only to bounce back and have a decent rookie campaign, beating all of the negative media after his first NFL start.  But yeah the Bears defense SHOULD dominate this one.
  • The Bears as a team allowed 21 points but Jay Cutler threw a Pick Six so the defense only allowed 14.  They sacked & picked off Andrew Luck 3 times and recovered 2 fumbles! 

Upset of the Week
49ers @ Packers

Pick 6
Bears vs Colts
Falcons @ Chiefs
Eagles @ Browns
Saints vs Redskins
Lions vs Rams
Patriots @ Titans

Things to look for:

Colts @ Bears - How many snaps will Matt Forte see?  If the Bears go up big early, does Michael Bush play the entire 4th quarter? 
  • A 16/12 split in carries favored Forte but Bush scored 2 of the 3 rushing TDs for the Bears.

Falcons @ Chiefs - Will Atlanta come out slinging the ball or will they establish their run game early on?
  • 31 passes to just 23 rushing attempts.  Matt Ryan scored 4 TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing).

Jaguars @ Vikings - How many snaps will Adrian Peterson see? 
  • All Day AP carried the ball 17 times for 84 yards, including a 20 yard run and scored twice!

Redskins @ Saints - Can RG3 show signs of greatness against a weak defense?
  • YUP

Bills @ Jets - How many snap will Tim Tebow see and will they all be in the Wildcat formation?
  • Tim Tebow was NOT the story of this game for the first time in his NFL career.  Mark Sanchez was the games most valuable player. 

49ers @ Packers - Can the NFC runner-ups upset the NFC favorites?  Will this game be as good as last years Saints Packers Week 1 matchup?
  • They did and the game was no where near as good as last years opener with the Saints but still a good one.

Seahawks @ Cardinals - Will the starting QB for either team take the teams final snaps?
  • John Skelton left the game with an ankle injury which lead to Kevin Kolb leading the Cadinals on the game winning drive! 
Panthers @ Buccaneers - Passing attempt over/under 30 ? Leave your answer in the comment section! 
  • Someone who was able to watch this mess of a game is going to have to explain to me why the Panthers had a 33/13 pass to run ratio in BAD weather.  Combined pass attempts with the Bucs was 57!

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