Saturday, February 2, 2013

Breaking Down the Super Bowl Box Pool Odds

Based on the final score from 256 regular season games and 10 playoff matchups from the 2012-13 season, the following information should help you understand your odds of winning your Super Bowl Box Pool this year! 

What boxes did you end up with and how much did you pay per box?


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Scores from ESPN
  • 0 appeared 72 times (13.58%)
  • 1 appeared 52 times (9.81%)
  • 2 appeared 23 times (4.34%)
  • 3 appeared 87 times (16.42%)
  • 4 appeared 84 times (15.85%)
  • 5 appeared 20 times (3.77%)
  • 6 appeared 41 times (7.74%)
  • 7 appeared 79 times (14.91%)
  • 8 appeared 45 times (8.49%)
  • 9 appeared 27 times (5.09%)
The winning team most commonly finished with a 4 (17.74%) while the losing team usually finished with a 3 (22.26%)!

The least common number for a winning team was 2 (4.15%) while the least common number for the loser was 5 (1.51%).

Ironically enough, the 10 playoff games this year have brought mainly 4's and 8's and never once produced a 6 or 7 (or 2) in their final scores!
Baltimore Ravens Quarter by Quarter Breakdown (19 games)





In Baltimore's 16 regular season games, they had a final score with the following numbers:
  • 3 appeared 5 times (31.25%)
  • 1,5,7 appeared 2 times (12.50%)
  • 0,4,6,8,9 appeared 1 time (6.25%)
  • 2 never appeared
In Baltimore's 3 playoff games, they had a final score with the following numbers:
  • 4, 8 & 8

San Francisco 49ers Quarter by Quarter Breakdown (18 games)




In San Francisco's 16 regular season games, they had a final score with the following numbers:
  • 3 appeared 5 times (31.25%)
  • 4,7 appeared 3 times (18.75%)
  • 1 appeared 2 times (12.50%)
  • 0,2,5 appeared 1 times (6.25%)
  • 6,8,9 never appeared
In San Francisco's 2 playoff games, they had a final score with the following numbers:
  • 5 and 8

Check out last years breakdown which has been viewed over 400 times!

For a breakdown of the quarters and probabilities based on conference in Super Bowl history, check out the Super Bowl SuckyBox-o-Meter

After hearing people complain "My box sucks!" we decided to determine, once and for all, just how much each box sucks.  The following Super Bowl Box Pool odds were derived from compiling all the quarterly results from Super Bowls I thru XLV.
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