Monday, February 25, 2013

Adam Dunn vs Ryan Howard - Who Would You Rather Have?

As mentioned in our position rankings, First Base has become a deep, dominant position again.  With tons of young talent to choose from, its hard to draft an ageing power hitting first baseman.  But to fill in the UTIL, DH & CI positions, these old school, all or nothing hitters can really help you fill out that HR, RBI and BB categories.  Yes, they strike out a ton, but that is part of the reason you are drafting Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard in the middle rounds.  But just remember, Ryan Howard is STILL recovering from that Achilles injury, and Adam Dunn hit 41 home runs last year!

Dunn managed to get just 110 hits all last season, leading to a .204 batting average but finished with a .333 OBP.  His 34% K rate was the highest of his career, so hopefully he can bring that down closer to the 30% mark and raise that average SLIGHTLY to increase RBI and 2B production.

Howard is still recovering that that freak injury suffered in the 2011 playoffs where he was the final out of the series.  The Phillies lineup is not what it used to be and is VERY old with Michael Young joining the team.  Gone are the days of Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino and the Phillies acquired Ben Revere to spark the offense.  I would love to have Ryan Howard with a pick in the 130-150 range, but I would never suggest reaching for him, or relying on him.  Howard's K rate nearly matched Dunn's at 33% but his limited ABs kept him under 100 strike outs for the season.

Both guys struggle against lefties and both guys struggle after the All-Star break.  Their production can and should be so similar that there is NO need to draft Ryan Howard 75 slots higher than Adam Dunn as we are seeing in Yahoo leagues and 83 picks earlier in Mock Draft Central leagues.  Last season in my points based league in which strike outs DO NOT COUNT, Adam Dunn finished as the #7 first baseman, ahead of Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and teammate Paul Konerko.  REMINDER: David Ortiz and Joey Votto saw less than 400 ABs last season due to injury.  Make sure you understand your leagues scoring system and if HRs, RBI and BBs are weighed heavily, Adam Dunn is a great player to have on your roster and much safer than Ryan Howard.

Average Draft Position:
  • Adam Dunn
    • Mock Draft Central - 158.76
    • MDC Experts - 131.2
    • Yahoo - 163.5
  • Ryan Howard
    • Mock Draft Central - 73.13
    • MDC Experts - 133
    • Yahoo - 98.7

Adam Dunn (2010-2012)ABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
Total15122083217129024125714598230.2120.3300.4400.770
vs. Left44351741312462697188100.1670.2880.3630.651
vs. Right1069157247581661791887410130.2310.3470.4720.819
Home75497156330461211208315020.2070.3210.4340.755
Away758111165382441201376283210.2180.3400.4470.787
Pre All-Star882123196492561541559359020.2220.3420.4730.815
Post All-Star6308512522034871025239210.1980.3130.3950.708


Ryan Howard (2010-2012)ABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
Total13671963506467828015919428210.2560.3390.4830.822
vs. Left461491062012185349161010.2300.2940.4140.708
vs. Right9061472444455719512510267200.2690.3610.5180.879
Home69611018534343147818218210.2660.3470.5090.856
Away67186165303351337811210000.2460.3310.4560.787
Pre All-Star691102190345351377311186110.2750.3500.4910.841
Post All-Star6769416030143143868242100.2370.3280.4750.803


Who would you rather have? Let us know who you voted for in the comment section!

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