Thursday, March 21, 2013

Fantasy Baseball Third Basemen Rankings

The hot corner is one loaded with young, risky, talent.  Guys like Manny Machado, Brett Lawrie and Mike Moustakas all provide fantasy owners with huge upsides and increased positivity when reading about them.  But last season Lawrie was hit with the injury bug and Moustakas suffered a sophomore slump.  If these two guys can give owners consistent production with 500-600 ABs, third base could be the position that wins you your fantasy league!  With Alex Rodriguez' hip and off field issues, Kevin Youkilis might just see enough ABs to move him up this list, but with Eduardo Nunez' bat waiting for opportunity, the New York Yankees would be silly not to share the weatlh.  All 5 guys before the jump are 1st and 2nd round worthy, but be VERY careful with Evan Longoria due to health and have a SOLID backup plan just in case!

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be without Hanley Ramirez for two months after thumb surgery.

The San Diego Padres will be without Chase Headley for the first month and maybe more.  Headley has a fractured thumb.

Same Face, New Place - Infielders

*- New Team
** - Sleeper

1.) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
2.) Adrian Beltre - Texas Rangers
  • Beltre is a model of consistency. From 2010-2012, Miguel Cabrera leads third basemen in R, HR, RBI, AVG, 2Bs, and SLG %. Miguel Cabrera is considered a top 3 pick. Adrian Beltre is second in all these categories, except R (he is 3rd). The only thing Beltre lacks is speed, which is the only reason David Wright can creep in the conversation for the second rated third basemen. www.mockdraftcentral.com (MDC) ADP- 16  - @Schuch10
3.) David Wright - New York Mets
4.) Evan Longoria - Tampa Bay Rays
5.) Ryan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals

6.) Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco Giants
7.) David Freese - St. Louis Cardinals
  • Check out Baseball Professor's full Player Profile on David Freese
    • I’m a huge fan of the potential Freese has, primarily because last year he walked in over 10% of his plate appearances for the first time since 2007 (high-A ball), he has an uncanny ability to make solid contact (career 22.4% line drive rate), and he has the strength to muscle fly balls out of the ballpark (16.7% HR/FB rate in 2011, 20.0% last year). - @BaseballProf
8.) Aramis Ramirez - Milwaukee Brewers
  • Ramirez was a scary FA signing for the Brewers in 2012. He was coming off of what seemed to be a money making season, something ARam could not repeat. Seeing him given a three year contract was even scarier. But ARam easily met expectations in 2012. He hit 50 doubles, posted his second straight .300+ season and hit 25+ HRs for the third straight year. In fact, he has hit over .288  and over 25 HRs in 8 of the last 9 seasons. Like Beltre, ARam may not contribute to SBs, but he can add in 4/5 of the typical scoring settings. MDC ADP- 42 - @Schuch10

9.) Will Middlebrooks - Boston Red Sox
10.) Hanley Ramirez - Los Angeles Dodgers
11.) Chase Headley - San Diego Padres
12.) Brett Lawrie - Toronto Blue Jays
  • The sleeper hype was so high for Lawrie last year that people overdrafted the value of the player. This year, it may have gone the other direction. Though many viewed it as a “down” year -- and he only played 125 games due to injury -- he still had double-digit steals and home runs, while hitting .273. None of this jumps out at you, but when a “down” year is solid enough to not kill you in any categories, it’s the sign of a good fantasy player. At the very least, he is solid and doesn’t hurt you; at the most, he reaches his huge potential and puts up monster numbers. - @RDevinHughes
  • Lawrie has 2008 Hanley Ramirez upside. In his initial season, his power was surprising. If we extrapolate his numbers from Season 1 to a full season his stat line would have been: 104R, 32 2Bs, 16 3Bs, 36 HRs, 100 RBI, 28 SB, and a .293 BA. Those are impressive numbers and he would have been 2012s Mike Trout. Picking a small sample size of a quarter of a season may be statistically irrelevant, but fantasy owners are willing to invest more draft value, with less information. His year two numbers may have not been as impressive in the power and speed department, but I would be confident in projecting 15HRs, 20 SBs, and 100 Rs, especially in this new Blue Jay offense. MDC ADP- 65 - @Schuch10
13.) Kyle Seager - Seattle Mariners
  • Seager was one of just 8 third basemen to hit at least 30 doubles and 20 home runs.  With the offensive additions the Mariners made in adding Kendrys Morales, Mike Morse and even guys like Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay, Seager should see both his runs scored (62) and RBI (86) increase.  Also, he is a better hitter than his .256 average from last year so expect a .265-.280 average that will help in all categories. - @WeTlkFntsySprts
14.) Martin Prado *- Arizona Diamondbacks
15.) Mike Moustakas - Kansas City Royals
16.) Manny Machado **- Baltimore Orioles
17.) Todd Frazier **- Cincinatti Reds
  • Scott Rolen took away nearly 300 ABs from Frazier last season, yet he still managed to hit 26 doubles and 19 home runs and drive in 67 runners.  However, he still managed to strike out over 100 times.  Frazier should slot into the 7th spot behind Jay Bruce in the Reds lineup. - @WeTlkFntsySprts
18.) Kevin Youkilis * - New York Yankees
19.) Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Pirates
  • If you’ve waited a long time and gotten this low on 3B, absolutely take Alvarez. We don’t have the home run hitters of the steroid era anymore, but Alvarez has huge power. 30 HR and 85 RBI last year despite only hitting .244; if he can get that average up to even .260, he will have big run production numbers. If the average stays low, he still contributes in the HR and RBI categories, making him a more exciting own that a Callaspo or Michael Young. - @RDevinHughes

20.) Chris Nelson ** - Colorado Rockies
21.) Alberto Callaspo - Los Angeles Angels
22.) Michael Young *- Philadelphia Phillies
23.) Trevor Plouffe - Minnesota Twins
24.) Chris Johnson *- Atlanta Braves
25.) Ryan Roberts - Tampa Bay Rays
26.) Lonnie Chisenhall - Cleveland Indians
  • Fairly deep sleeper pick, but I’m a believer. The Indians view him as their 3B of the future and will likely give him every chance to prove he can be that guy. Tune in to Spring Training news to make sure he wins the job; if he does, he could become a solid run producer from the bottom of your draft.  - @RDevinHughes
27.) Matt Dominguez - Houston Astros
28.) Ian Stewart - Chicago Cubs
29.) Jeff Keppinger *- Chicago White Sox
30.) Placido Polanco *- Miami Marlins
31.) Josh Donaldson - Oakland Athletics
32.) Juan Francisco - Atlanta Braves

Don't forget these guys!
Mike Olt - Rangers signed Lance Berkman to be their DH but he is most likely going to find a way to get injured.  Olt could slide in nicely and not return to the minors giving Adrian Beltre days off at 3B

Josh Vitters - The Cubs Ian Stewart hasn't managed 200 ABs since 2010.  With him struggling to stay healthy on top of not have a batting average above .201 since that 2010 season, Vitters is almost a lock for the MLB by the All-Star break.

Jedd Gyorko - The Padres can't afford to not have his bat in their lineup, especially with the fences moving in at PETCO.  Gyorko owns a power bat that hits for average as well as a high OBP.  If he can find playing time, be it at 3B (move Headley to OF) or 2B, Gyorko, Headley and Quentin can provide fantasy owners with some real nice numbers.

Stats from last season:
  • 20 third basemen hit at least 15 homeruns
  • Miguel Cabrera lead all third basemen with 139 RBI
    • Chase Headley (115) Aramis Ramirez (105) and Adrian Beltre (102) were the only other with 100+ RBI
      • Just 7 others drove in at least 75 runs.
        • Ryan Zimmerman (95), David Wright (93) and Hanley Ramirez (92) were the only others in the 90s
  • Aramis Ramirez hit 50 doubles
    • Martin Prado (42) David Wright (41) and Miguel Cabrera (40) were the only other who reached 40
      • 6 others hit at least 30 doubles
  • 13 third basemen scored at least 70 times
    • Miguel Cabrera was the only guy in triple digits (109)
      • Adrian Beltre, Chase Headley, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez and David Wright scored at least 90 times
        • Martin Prado (81) was the only third baseman to score in the 80s
  • 15 third basemen struck out at least 100 times
    • Pedro Alvarez lead with 180
      • Mark Reynolds (now 1B) and Chase Headley only others above 150
  • Chase Headley (86) and David Wright (81) were the only third basemen to draw more than 73 walks
  • Hanley Ramirez lead all third basemen with 21 stolen bases
    • Chase Headley, Martin Prado and Maicer Izturis had 17 each
      • 8 others had at least 10
Of third basemen with 300+ ABs

  • 8 third basemen hit .300 or better
    • Only Miguel Cabrera (.330) Jeff Keppinger (.325) and Adrian Beltre (.321) hit .310 or better
  • Just 4 third basemen finished with an OBP of .375 and up
  • Miguel Cabrera (.606) and Adrian Beltre (.561) were the only third basemen who SLG .550 or better
    • Aramis Ramirez (.540) was the only other guy above .500
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