Friday, March 8, 2013

Yahoo Fantasy Baseball ADP Mock Draft

Understanding Average Draft Position is a key element to a great draft.  You may feel that other people have players ranked as high or low as you do, but 9 times out of 10 every ones rankings are different.  Your draft strategy will determine if you reach for starting pitching early, or if you fill up your starting second base position last.  We took Yahoo Average Draft Position and did a mock draft to fill out teams with the following rosters:

1 Catcher
1 First Base
1 Second Base
1 Third Base
1 Shortstop
3 Outfielders
3 Starting Pitchers
1 Relief Pitcher

We did have to shuffle around some guys to make sure each 12 man roster filled the necessary requirements, but it is a good understanding of what your starting team could look like in a 12 man league, based on your draft slot.

(1) 1 Mike Trout LAA  OF
(2) 24 Justin Upton Atl  OF
(3) 25 Dustin Pedroia Bos  2B
(4) 48 Ryan Zimmerman Was  3B
(5) 49 Madison Bumgarner SF  SP
(6) 72 Yadier Molina StL  C
(7) 73 Jonathan Papelbon Phi
(8) 96 Ryan Howard Phi  1B
(9) 97 Austin Jackson Det
(10) 120 Dan Haren Was SP
(11) 121 Derek Jeter NYY
(12) 144 Doug Fister Det  SP

I love the strategy of taking the Outfielders first.  As mentioned in our OF rankings post, they are the most reliable fantasy players and are necessary to win your league.  Love following up 2 OF with a position that is scarce like second base.  If you didn't draft one by now, you might as well wait until the final rounds to pick up whoever is left.  Zimmerman when healthy is a steal in round 4 and a solid 3B.  This is where you should start looking for pitching, especially one as good as Madison Bumgarner in Rd5.  Yadier Molina is a great fantasy catcher and a wise decision to wait for the middle rounds to go after one, rather than reaching for a Buster Posey in the early rounds.  Papelbon is still a solid fantasy player, Ryan Howard has potential as an eight round pick ( although I like Adam Dunn over Howard ) and Austin Jackson is a steal in rd 9 pick 97.  Filling out the rotation with 2 of your last 3 picks is a wise decision, and as you can see there is still quality pitching in the 10th and 12th rounds, don't reach for pitching early!  Finally, Derek Jeter is available in the 11th round, this is a prime example why not to reach for Shortstops. 

Overall - A-

(1) 2 Ryan Braun Mil  OF
(2) 23 David Wright NYM  3B
(3) 26 Hanley Ramírez LAD  SS 3B
(4) 47 R.A. Dickey Tor  SP
(5) 50 Yoenis Céspedes Oak  OF
(6) 71 Aaron Hill Ari  2B
(7) 74 Kris Medlen Atl  SP RP
(8) 95 Anthony Rizzo ChC  1B
(9) 98 Fernando Rodney TB  RP
(10) 119 Jeff Samardzija ChC  SP
(11) 122 Hunter Pence SF  OF
(12) 143 Jesús Montero Sea  C

Not quite sure I would take Braun over Cabrera but to each their own!  I know I say take the outfielders first, but guys like Cabrera and Robinson Cano are in a league of their own.  If you draft Miggy here you don't have to "reach" for David Wright at the end of round 2.  As you can see you can have Hanley Ramirez play the same position just 3 picks later and you could own Justin Upton!  Dickey should have a solid season but I am not sure I would want him before the 5th round.  I know he wont last but if he fell past that round I would scoop him up, not before though.  Cespedes proved to be a valuable fantasy player in his rookie season and I love his potential.  I am not an Aaron Hill fan and would rather wait for Dan Uggla, while Kris Medlen is the most overrated pitcher entering this season.  Rizzo should be a solid player this season, while Fernando Rodney better hope he can match last seasons dominance!  Not sold on Samardzija but the former Tight End did have a good season last year.  I really like Hunter Pence and Jesus Montero rounding out the draft and they both have incredible value this late.

Overall - C+

(1) 3 Miguel Cabrera Det  3B
(2) 22 David Price TB  SP
(3) 27 Ian Kinsler Tex  2B
(4) 46 Billy Butler KC  1B
(5) 51 Gio González Was  SP
(6) 70 Elvis Andrus Tex  SS
(7) 75 Carlos Santana Cle  C 1B
(8) 94 Carlos Beltrán StL  OF
(9) 99 Mark Trumbo LAA  OF 1B 3B
(10) 118 Jake Peavy CWS  SP
(11) 123 J.J. Putz Ari  RP
(12) 142 Nick Markakis Bal  OF

That's a pretty solid start to a draft with Cabrera and the reigning American League Cy-Young Award winner David Price.  If you are going to draft anything other than OF in these rounds, those are the types of players you should be targeting!  I love Kinser and Billy Butler but I think I would pass on both of those guys.  Love Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals pitching staff.  Elvis Andrus is a solid fantasy player at the SS position.  Santana and Beltran might drive you crazy missing games here and there but they should still produce enough to hold their own.  I LOVE MARK TRUMBO in the 9th round, plus he gives you flexibility with 3 positions.  Huge fan of Peavy and Markakis as well late in the draft while J.J. Putz I could do without.

Overall - B+

(1) 4 Robinson Canó NYY  2B
(2) 21 Evan Longoria TB  3B
(3) 28 Edwin Encarnación Tor  1B
(4) 45 CC Sabathia NYY  SP
(5) 52 Adam Wainwright StL  SP
(6) 69 Ian Desmond Was  SS
(7) 76 Álex Ríos CWS  OF
(8) 93 Shin-Soo Choo Cin  OF
(9) 100 Alex Gordon KC  OF
(10) 117 Jim Johnson Bal  RP
(11) 124 Josh Johnson Tor  SP
(12) 141 Salvador Pérez KC  C

Here we have another team that did not draft any OF until the 7th round, but managed to draft a solid team.  taking Cano and Longoria in rounds 1 and 2 is always a great idea.  Encarnacion has proven his worth and if he can replicate his last two seasons, he will have plenty of value as a 3rd rounder.  Picking up pitching in Sabathia and Wainwright could net you 35-40 wins and Ian Desmond was a top SS last season so a round 6 pick is acceptable.  WISE decision to fill the outfield in consecutive rounds, but I still recommend getting at least one power hitter at that position, rather than all gap hitters.  Jim and Josh Johnson are great picks this late and Salvador Perez could be a steal in round 12.  People still don't know much about him.

Overall - B+

(1) 5 Matt Kemp LAD  OF
(2) 20 Félix Hernández Sea  SP
(3) 29 Jason Heyward Atl  OF
(4) 44 Starlin Castro ChC  SS
(5) 53 Paul Goldschmidt Ari  1B
(6) 68 Ben Zobrist TB  OF 2B SS
(7) 77 Pablo Sandoval SF  3B
(8) 92 Martín Prado Ari  2B 3B SS OF
(9) 101 Wilin Rosario Col  C
(10) 116 Ian Kennedy Ari  SP
(11) 125 Jon Lester Bos  SP
(12) 140 Huston Street SD  RP

This is a SOLID team and the only team to use their LAST pick on a closer, which I suggest!  Kemp and Hernandez is great, but I am not sure I spend a 3rd round pick on Heyward.  Could have Jose Reyes instead and drafted Cespedes in the next round if you want a OF/SS combo in rounds 3 and 4.  I guess its all the same though as Castro is my favorite SS coming into this season.  People are reaching for Goldschmidt in the 5th round as there is solid pitching surrounding this pick, and guys like Allen Craig, David Ortiz and Freddie Freeman still available.  I really like Goldschmidt but his ability to steal bases is being heavily weighted for some reason.  Zobrist, Sandoval and Prado are amazing at this point in the draft.  Zobrist/Prado give you so much flexibility that injuries won't haunt your team.  Wilin Rosario is the best power hitting catcher in the game!  Rounding out your pitching staff with two potential 20 game winners is always a great idea, and Huston Street is valuable when healthy.

Overall - A-

(1) 6 Albert Pujols LAA  1B
(2) 19 Adrián Béltre Tex  3B
(3) 30 José Reyes Tor  SS
(4) 43 Craig Kimbrel Atl  RP
(5) 54 B.J. Upton Atl  OF
(6) 67 Mat Latos Cin  SP
(7) 78 Desmond Jennings TB  OF
(8) 91 James Shields KC  SP
(9) 102 Nelson Cruz Tex  OF
(10) 115 Tim Lincecum SF  SP
(11) 126 Rickie Weeks Mil  2B
(12) 139 Mike Napoli Bos  C 1B

It still amazes me that Albert Pujols can fall to the #6 slot.  Do not let that happen in your league, unless of course you have the 6th pick or later!  I like Adrian Beltre but just remember he will miss games due to various injuries.  Jose Reyes is a good a 3rd round pick you will see.  Craig Kimbrel is so good and the Braves got better this offseason which should lead to even more save opportunities. BJ Upton in the 5th round could prove to be a steal.  The Braves could lead him off or hit him down in the lineup, and that will produce two vastly different fantasy players.  Mat Latos, James Shields and Tim Lincecum is exactly what I meant by waiting for pitching.  Think about that for a second.  This has to be Jennings year, because fantasy owners are not drafting him expecting a .246 average and Nelson Cruz should be able to take advantage of Josh Hamilton landing in Los Angeles.  Rickie Weeks is good for 20 homers and Mike Napoli could hit 50 doubles off the Green Monster for the Red Sox.  Solid end to the draft.

Overall - B+

(1) 7 Joey Votto Cin  1B
(2) 18 Josh Hamilton LAA  OF
(3) 31 Cole Hamels Phi  SP
(4) 42 Matt Holliday StL  OF
(5) 55 Yu Darvish Tex  SP
(6) 66 Brandon Phillips Cin  2B
(7) 79 Jimmy Rollins Phi  SS
(8) 90 Jordan Zimmermann Was  SP
(9) 103 Mariano Rivera NYY  RP
(10) 114 Carl Crawford LAD  OF
(11) 127 Brian McCann Atl  C
(12) 138 Pedro Alvarez Pit  3B

The top of this draft looks great with Votto/Hamilton/Hamels/Holliday/Darvish but there is MAJOR injury concern on this team.  I would never be able to stomach a roster with this many players who are risks.  Yeah the upside is through the ceiling but this owner may never see his team playing all together.

Overall - B-

(1) 8 Andrew McCutchen Pit  OF
(2) 17 Buster Posey SF  C 1B
(3) 32 Matt Cain SF  SP
(4) 41 Adrián González LAD  1B OF
(5) 56 Allen Craig StL  OF 1B
(6) 65 Brett Lawrie Tor  3B
(7) 80 Max Scherzer Det  SP
(8) 89 Yovani Gallardo Mil  SP
(9) 104 José Altuve Hou  2B
(10) 113 Josh Willingham Min  OF
(11) 128 Sergio Romo SF  RP
(12) 137 Erick Aybar LAA  SS

Fantasy owners have to wonder which McCutchen will show up this year.  The one who hit .259 in 2011, or the one who hit .324 in 2012.  Don't get me wrong, he is an amazing ball player but is he really more valuable than Justin Verlander, Prince Fielder, and Stephen Strasburg?  I know I am not big on 1st round pitching but I would rather have any of those 3 before McCutchen.  Buster Posey is awesome but you don't need your catcher to be your best player to win fantasy leagues.  Matt Cain is great and Adrian Gonzalez found his stroke after the all-star break hittin .317.  I love Allen Craig this season but Brett Lawrie and his injury history in his short career scare me in round 6 at a position that is rather deep.  Love Scherzer and Gallardo and Altuve's speed.  Willingham continues to be undervalued and is a steal in round 10 while Romo is a great reliever and Aybar I can live without.  Would rather have J.J. Hardy power.

Overall - C

(1) 9 Justin Verlander Det  SP
(2) 16 José Bautista Tor  OF
(3) 33 Bryce Harper Was  OF
(4) 40 Jay Bruce Cin  OF
(5) 57 Roy Halladay Phi  SP
(6) 64 Johnny Cueto Cin  SP
(7) 81 David Ortiz Bos  1B
(8) 88 Matt Wieters Bal  C
(9) 105 Asdrubal Cabrera Cle  SS
(10) 112 Joe Nathan Tex  RP
(11) 129 Chase Utley Phi  2B
(12) 136 Mike Moustakas KC  3B

You really can't go wrong with Justin Verlander but Jose Bautista will need to recover from that wrist injury that limited him to just 6 ABs after the all-star break.  I can't imagine drafting him and expecting him to score 100 runs, hit anywhere near .260 or hit 40 homeruns again, ever.  I don't like JoeyBats this season at 16 overall.  Bryce Harper on the otherhand I love coming into this season as well as Jay Bruce, so this owner made out well in the outfield.  Selecting all 3 OF and SP in the first 6 rounds is bold but could prove very productive with a staff of Verlander, Doc Hallady and Johnny Cueto.  He will be relying on another power bat recovering from an injury (Achilles) in David Ortiz.  Big Papi is the man, and in round 7 i would absolutely take a flyer on him.  Weiters has been a very reliable fantasy catcher, but we all have expected more for the kid.  I like all of the Indians lineup this year including Asdrubal Cabrera and Joe Nathan should see plenty of save opportunities for the Rangers.  Chase Utley in the 11th round is a no brainer and Mike Moustakas has all the potential in the world so a 12th round pick should leave you very happy.

Overall - B

(1) 10 Carlos González Col  OF
(2) 15 Troy Tulowitzki Col  SS
(3) 34 Curtis Granderson NYY  OF
(4) 39 Zack Greinke LAD  SP
(5) 58 Joe Mauer Min  C 1B
(6) 63 Aroldis Chapman Cin  SP RP
(7) 82 Freddie Freeman Atl  1B
(8) 87 Jason Motte StL  RP
(9) 106 Brandon Morrow Tor  SP
(10) 111 David Freese StL  3B
(11) 130 Dan Uggla Atl  2B
(12) 135 Carlos Gómez Mil  OF

Taking the two Rockies studs is a dangerous move and I doubt Granderson is a 3rd pick with his wrist injury preventing him from having a spring training.  Not even sure if I am a Greinke fan this early but Joe Mauer is always nice to have in your lineup.  I hate when teams move lights out closer to the rotation, but Chapman should be fine and a valuable fantasy pitcher.  Actually surprised he went as late as round 6.  Freddie Freeman is an absolute beast and Jason Motte is one of the leagues best closers.  Morrow has huge upside, but also a big injury risk while David Freese and Dan Uggla are proof you can wait for those positions.  Carlos Gomez is proof you can't wait for outfielders!

Overall - C

(1) 11 Prince Fielder Det  1B
(2) 14 Giancarlo Stanton Mia  OF
(3) 35 Cliff Lee Phi  SP
(4) 38 Jacoby Ellsbury Bos  OF
(5) 59 Chase Headley SD  3B
(6) 62 Chris Sale CWS  SP
(7) 83 Michael Bourn Cle  OF
(8) 86 Matt Moore TB  SP
(9) 107 Rafael Soriano Was  RP
(10) 110 Miguel Montero Ari  C
(11) 131 Danny Espinosa Was  SS 2B
(12) 134 Kyle Seager Sea  2B 3B
This is how you draft!  Fielder and Stanton set your team up nicely as you can go look for a run scorer, double machine, strikeout pitcher, and this owner did ALL OF THAT.  Speed with Ellsbury and Bourn, Doubles from Headley and Seager, solid rotation in Lee/Sale/Moore and a catcher who is way more valuable than pick 110.  The only 2 picks I'm not big on are Soriano and Espinosa but closers are replaceable and if you draft Espinosa to play short, you can always a replacement.

Overall - A-

(12) 12 Stephen Strasburg Was  SP
(12) 13 Clayton Kershaw LAD  SP
(12) 36 Adam Jones Bal  OF
(12) 37 Jered Weaver LAA  SP
(12) 60 Mark Teixeira NYY  1B
(12) 61 Jason Kipnis Cle  2B
(12) 84 Aramis Ramírez Mil  3B
(12) 85 Víctor Martínez Det  C
(12) 108 Shane Victorino Bos  OF
(12) 109 Melky Cabrera Tor  OF
(12) 132 Joel Hanrahan Bos  RP
(12) 133 Alcides Escobar KC  SS
So this guy drafted 3 pitchers in the first 4 rounds and actually did a decent job filling in his everyday position players.  The rotation is hard to beat, but an OF of Adam Jones, Shane Victorino and Melky Cabrera is darn good considering Victorino and Cabrera came in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Mark Teixeira will miss a bunch of games, and in a draft happening today, would not be drafted in the 5th round.  Jason Kipnis is one of the better 2B and a fine 6th round pick.  I'm not sure Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy long enough to duplicate last seasons success and Victor Martinez should be a steal in round 8.  Joel Hanrahan is ok and Alcides Escobar can give you 30 doubles and 30 stolen bases which is pretty solid out for a 12th round draft pick.. 

Overall - B+

What is your draft strategy heading into this years Fantasy Baseball season?  Let us know in the comment section!

Best Players Still Available

Eric Hosmer KC  1B
Paul Konerko CWS  1B
Ike Davis NYM  1B
Adam LaRoche Was  1B
Nick Swisher Cle  1B OF
Adam Dunn CWS  1B

Neil Walker Pit  2B
Marco Scutaro SF  2B
Howie Kendrick LAA  2B
Josh Rutledge Col  2B
Everth Cabrera SD  2B
Darwin Barney ChC  2B

Will Middlebrooks Bos  3B
Manny Machado Bal  3B

A.J. Pierzynski Tex  C
Jonathan Lucroy Mil  C
Ryan Doumit Min  C

J.J. Hardy Bal  SS

If you wait for outfield help, you will be stuck forming a team that starts one or two of these guys
Alejandro De Aza CWS  OF
Andre Ethier LAD  OF
Ángel Pagán SF  OF
Norichika Aoki Mil  OF
Ichiro Suzuki NYY  OF
Michael Morse Sea  OF
Josh Reddick Oak  OF
Brett Gardner NYY  OF
Coco Crisp Oak  OF
Torii Hunter Det  OF
Alfonso Soriano ChC  OF
Adam Eaton Ari  OF
Ben Revere Phi  OF
Dexter Fowler Col  OF
Jason Kubel Ari  OF
Jayson Werth Was  OF

Look at all of this quality pitching still available! 36 pitchers are already drafted and you can still manage to put together a solid rotation!  Do you self a favor and wait on pitching!
Hiroki Kuroda NYY  SP
C.J. Wilson LAA  SP
Matt Garza ChC  SP
Lance Lynn StL  SP
Anibal Sánchez Det  SP
Matt Harvey NYM  SP
Brett Anderson Oak  SP
Jarrod Parker Oak  SP
Mike Minor Atl  SP
Marco Estrada Mil  SP
A.J. Burnett Pit  SP
Jonathon Niese NYM  SP
Ryan Vogelsong SF  SP
Homer Bailey Cin  SP
Tim Hudson Atl  SP
Derek Holland Tex  SP
Josh Beckett LAD  SP
Wade Miley Ari  SP
Shaun Marcum NYM  SP
Jeremy Hellickson TB  SP
Matt Harrison Tex  SP
Trevor Cahill Ari  SP
Ryan Dempster Bos  SP
Phil Hughes NYY  SP
Wei-Yin Chen Bal  SP
Clay Buchholz Bos  SP

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