Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Can Chip Kelly Improve the Eagles Run Game?

There is one thing that we’re sure about the Eagles offense this upcoming season. There’s going to be LOTS of snaps. And when there are lots of snaps, there are a lot of fantasy points to be earned. Today, we’ll be talking about what a new system and more plays can do for fantasy rushing.

First off, the Eagles former head coach Andy Reid’s system had lots of passing. In fact 60% of the time the Eagles passed the ball in 2012 vs. the 35% Oregon had last season. Let’s say that (conservatively) the Eagles spilt running and passing evenly like the 49ers (53% running).

Let’s look at what that will do for the run game. Considering that the Oregon offense had 10 more snaps in 4 less games we can estimate a 20% increase in team snaps. Along with going from 35% to 60% in run percentage (25% more) the Eagles running backs should have around 45% more carries.

Last season LeSean McCoy had 200 carries, 45% more would mean 290 carries. 90 extra carries at last season’s average of 4.2 yards a carry would mean an extra 378 yards to a total of 1218 yards. Receiving wise, the extra snaps and less throws should cancel each other out to a projected receiving total of 373 yards and 3 TDs. The final thing with McCoy is touchdowns. After an amazing 17 rushing Touchdowns in 2011, his touchdowns dropped significantly in 2012 with just two. Split the difference and you get 13 touchdowns, 10 on the ground and 3 in the air. Add all that up and you get the 5th best running back which is better than Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, and Ray Rice. The other running back this affects is Bryce Brown. Using the same methods, Bryce Brown would score 111 fantasy points good for 24th in the league (A very good flex option in a 12 team league). All in all, the 2013 Eagles running backs are going to be very good, and with some touchdown luck, could be great!

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