Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Buy Low Candidate: Starlin Castro

Coming into the 2013 season, many believed the Cubs young shortstop was headed for even bigger things than his all-star form from the previous two years. Castro did have a decent first month, batting .277 and driving in a dozen, but it has been a down hill slide since. May and June saw him manage just a .210 average while his strike out rate ballooned to nearly 19%. These two months have resulted in a very deflated overall stat line to this point in the season.  A career low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) has definitely not helped matters. With marks of just .243/.280/.351, the 23 year old is not close to his career line coming into the season of .297/.336/.425. However, Castro went 8 of 16 in a a four game set with St. Louis immediately heading into the all-star break and is hitting a solid .302 with a normalizing K rate since June 26th.

The turnaround has started and the window on your chance for a below value acquisition will start to close very quickly once fantasy managers begin to take notice. Some already have. Now is the time to make an offer. If career patterns hold firm there will be no regrets.

Castro is a career .300 hitter after the break. When you compare his career first half OPS of .710 to a .781 second half mark, it is easy to see that he is just simply a better hitter later in the season. A disappointing 7 stolen bases to this point has also been a frustration to owners. As his on base percentage increases, that number should rise drastically. Racking up 47 steals over the last two seasons, speed is typically part of the package.

Keep in mind that Castro has largely achieved his level of production without much in they way of a supporting cast. Do not be scared off by trade rumors swirling around Nate Schierholtz and Alfonso Soriano. Make your trade offers with confidence. At such a shallow position, Starlin Castro can be a real difference maker.

Buy Low Candidate: Doug Fister
Buy Low Candidate: Ian Kennedy
Buy Low Candidate: B.J. Upton

Casto was our #1 ranked SS coming into the season.  Click here to see where he ranks at the All-Star Break!

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