Wednesday, November 13, 2013

How Did Your Fantasy Football Draft Hold Up?

Every team in the NFL has now played at least 9 games, which means the season is half over!  We spent the months, weeks and days leading up to our fantasy football drafts studying, doing mock drafts and researching to ensure we didn't make a mistake when our draft date arrived.  As usual, we all have that one move where we say "WHY DID WE PICK PLAYER A OVER PLAYER B?"  Don't feel bad, we all do it, every season.

Looking back to before the season started, and drafts were happening twice a night for some of us, this is what the average 1st round looked like in a 12 man league:

Player Name Position Team ADP
Adrian PetersonRBMIN1
Doug MartinRBTB2
Jamaal CharlesRBKC3
Arian FosterRBHOU4
C.J. SpillerRBBUF5
Calvin JohnsonWRDET6
Ray RiceRBBAL7
LeSean McCoyRBPHI8
Marshawn LynchRBSEA9
Trent RichardsonRBIND10
Matt ForteRBCHI11
Alfred MorrisRBWAS12

Pretty straight forward, 11 RBs and Calvin Johnson, standard.  Sometimes you saw an Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, maybe even a Jimmy Graham, but for most of us, maybe in a different order, this is how our first round looked.  Well Martin and Foster are done for the season, Ray Rice has not gained 75 yards rushing this season and Trent Richardson was traded and in 7 games has rushed for just 250 yards on 88 carries.

It is hard to second guess yourself considering that RBs are impossible to find once the season kicks off and these days you are forced to pick up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3rd and 4th RBs in Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey

So let's take a look at how fantasy football drafts have compared to actual production on the gridiron through 10 weeks in the NFL based on the following scoring system:

OffenseLeague Value
Completions0.5
Passing Yards50 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns6
Interceptions-2
Rushing Yards20 yards per point;
1 points at 100 yards;
1.5 points at 150 yards;
2 points at 200 yards
Rushing Touchdowns6
Receptions0.5
Reception Yards20 yards per point
Reception Touchdowns6
Return Touchdowns6
2-Point Conversions2
Fumbles Lost-2
Offensive Fumble Return TD6

The Top 100 players are split into 25 QBs, 29 RBs, 33 WRs and 13 TEs.  They are sorted by Yahoo Actual, not Fantasy Points.

Top 10TeamPOSFan PtsADPActual
Peyton ManningDenQB376.63351
Drew BreesNOQB328.38222
Jamaal CharlesKCRB124.2033
Marshawn LynchSeaRB114.2094
Adrian PetersonMinRB118.4515
Jimmy GrahamNOTE127.25156
Matthew StaffordDetQB280.42657
LeSean McCoyPhiRB108.4088
Tony RomoDalQB289.12749
Matt ForteChiRB116.151110

CLEARLY, QBs are weighed heavily in this league, however, their value is well represented as you can see with 3 RBs and a TE with less points being more valuable than Stafford.  I think it is fair to say these 10 guys have been the best fantasy players this season.

PlayerTeamPOSFan PtsADPActual
Knowshon MorenoDenRB115.3513411
Calvin JohnsonDetWR123.70612
Russell WilsonSeaQB230.897613
Andy DaltonCinQB258.2210314
A.J. GreenCinWR119.151415
Andrew LuckIndQB237.466916
Philip RiversSDQB266.0216517
Demaryius ThomasDenWR121.152318
DeSean JacksonPhiWR114.156719
Cam NewtonCarQB221.804820
Brandon MarshallChiWR119.301721
Frank GoreSFRB87.353322
Reggie BushDetRB89.302023
Julius ThomasDenTE102.3518624
Dez BryantDalWR109.501325
Robert Griffin IIIWasQB214.557026
Fred JacksonBufRB91.9510427
Jordy NelsonGBWR105.105528
Matt RyanAtlQB251.784929
Alfred MorrisWasRB74.851230
Aaron RodgersGBQB216.112131
Giovani BernardCinRB95.155432
Andre JohnsonHouWR103.503033
Wes WelkerDenWR107.304034
Jordan CameronCleTE91.0010735
Vernon DavisSFTE83.005236
Alshon JefferyChiWR84.9512537
Chris JohnsonTenRB74.801838
Antonio BrownPitWR93.505839
Eddie LacyGBRB70.404340
DeMarco MurrayDalRB78.852841
Alex SmithKCQB197.9316142
Ben RoethlisbergerPitQB210.1311843
Riley CooperPhiWR84.6522344
Pierre GarconWasWR89.155145
Colin KaepernickSFQB163.006046
T.Y. HiltonIndWR83.957547
Victor CruzNYGWR84.703448
Tom BradyNEQB206.974549
Ryan TannehillMiaQB203.3717350

When looking at the rankings here, remember that some teams have played 8 games and some have played 10 already.  Clearly Knowshon Moreno is the highlight of this list, but guys like Jordy Nelson are slowly falling off thanks to an Aaron Rodgers injury while Riley Cooper is climbing thanks to the great play of Nick Foles.  But if you pay attention, 17 of the top 50 players are QBs, and that is why it is more important to focus on drafting RBs early on with just 14 of them in the Top 50, including Moreno who was an after thought during draft season, Fred Jackson who splits carries with Spiller and Giovani Bernard who is a rookie that is just finally taking over RB duties in Cincy.  15 of the Top 50 players are WRs.

PlayerTeamPOSFan PtsADPActual
Joe FlaccoBalQB199.5413051
Pierre ThomasNORB78.9011752
Stevan RidleyNERB66.202453
Marvin JonesCinWR81.5034054
Terrelle PryorOakQB144.3825055
Danny WoodheadSDRB83.9010956
Vincent JacksonTBWR80.103657
Zac StacyStLRB65.2018058
Jason WittenDalTE74.104759
Arian FosterHouRB63.25460
Eric DeckerDenWR76.555761
Torrey SmithBalWR70.156162
Geno SmithNYJQB161.5423863
Tony GonzalezAtlTE72.755664
Jay CutlerChiQB186.2613165
Nick FolesPhiQB172.1228466
Golden TateSeaWR74.659867
Josh GordonCleWR68.409268
Antonio GatesSDTE66.609069
DeAngelo WilliamsCarRB53.407770
Joique BellDetRB64.1513371
Sam BradfordStLQB190.7913672
Andre EllingtonAriRB62.7027673
Jerricho CotcheryPitWR74.00#N/A74
Jordan ReedWasTE65.2539775
Terrance WilliamsDalWR69.6026776
Darren SprolesNORB70.702977
Denarius MooreOakWR69.4012678
Ryan MathewsSDRB52.355079
Le'Veon BellPitRB60.2511080
Eli ManningNYGQB169.399481
Martellus BennettChiTE65.0512082
Maurice Jones-DrewJaxRB56.752583
Eddie RoyalSDWR73.0533184
Larry FitzgeraldAriWR72.352685
Charles ClayMiaTE61.9531286
Carson PalmerAriQB178.7312987
Keenan AllenSDWR65.4021288
Greg OlsenCarTE57.508589
Darren McFaddenOakRB58.173890
Jacquizz RodgersAtlRB64.5012191
Jared CookStLTE53.909392
Rueben RandleNYGWR62.1513893
Mike TolbertCarRB59.1021594
Anquan BoldinSFWR61.208795
Aaron DobsonNEWR62.2014796
Julio JonesAtlWR59.851997
Kenny StillsNOWR55.5520198
Stevie JohnsonBufWR64.558199
Delanie WalkerTenTE54.10259100

There are 15 RBs in the bottom half of the Top 100 list compared to 8 QBs, 18 Wrs and 9 TEs.  Important to note that 6 of these 15 RBs are on just 3 teams and 1 of them is done for the season!

So go back and take a look at your draft results.  See anything that makes you scratch your head?  What about waiver wire moves or early season trading, anything that makes you say WOW, HOW?!

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