Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Super Bowl Box Pool Odds

Based on the final score from 256 regular season games and 10 playoff matchups from the 2013-14 season, the following information should help you understand your odds of winning your Super Bowl Box Pool this year! 

What boxes did you end up with and how much did you pay per box?

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Scores from ESPN
  • 0 appeared 90 times (16.9%)
  • 1 appeared 58 times (10.9%)
  • 2 appeared 21 times (3.9%)
  • 3 appeared 73 times (13.7%)
  • 4 appeared 70 times (13.2%)
  • 5 appeared 17 times (3.2%)
  • 6 appeared 43 times (8.1%)
  • 7 appeared 98 times (18.4%)
  • 8 appeared 33 times (6.2%)
  • 9 appeared 29 times (5.5%)
The #7 showed up in 18.4% of all games played.  19.2% of the time the winning team showed a 7.  17.7% of the time the losing team showed a 7.

The #0 was next on the list, showing in 16.9% of games played.  The winning team only saw this number 10.9% of the time, but losers saw a zero in 22.9% of games played.

The #s 3,4 & 1 all showed up in between 10% and 14% of games played.

You will want to stay away from 2s and 5s as they showed in less than 5% of all 266 NFL games.

The 10 playoff games this year have brought mainly 3's (5 times) with 0, 4, 6 & 7 each coming 3 times.  Never once did a playoff game produce a 1, 8 or 9 for a final score!

For a breakdown of the quarters and probabilities based on conference in Super Bowl history, check out the Super Bowl SuckyBox-o-Meter
After hearing people complain "My box sucks!" we decided to determine, once and for all, just how much each box sucks. The following Super Bowl Box Pool odds were derived from compiling all the quarterly results from Super Bowls I thru XLVI.
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