Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Power Rankings - The Open Championship

When asked what winning The Masters was like, Adam Scott said something to the extent of "I'll let you know when I do". Of course, that Adam Scott was an actor in the TV series, Parks and Recreation. This week's top seed in my power rankings has actually won The Masters and is currently the world's best golfer. For nine-weeks, Adam Scott (the golfer) has held on to the rank and he currently shows no sign of giving it up.


In this week's edition of the Power Rankings, and those going forward, I'll be listing the Top-15 with their Total Aggregate (TA), a number that combines recent performance with course history and some select other metrics, and the change (CHG) from the last tournament they participated in. Total Aggregate is out of 100, with a lower number indicating a better ranking, as described in Movers and Losers.

  1. Adam Scott - TA: 11.42, CHG: -1.2 - Since reaching #1 in the OWGR, Adam Scott has finished no worse than ninth in any tournament he's enter. Granted, that's only three tournaments, but he still continues to prove he's the real deal. Couple his excellent form with third and second place finishes in his last two Open Championships, and Adam Scott should be the odds on favorite.
  2. Jordan Spieth - TA: 18.67, CHG: +6 - Another week, another Jordan Spieth Top-10. I can wax poetic all day about his ability to place well, but can he win again? His results place him here, but whether you've got starts for him or whether you think he's worth starting over other multiple winners is another story.
  3. Hideki Matsuyama - TA: 18.83, CHG: +13 - Hasn't played since a T35 at the U.S. Open, but won at The Memorial two weeks prior and nabbed a T10 prior to that. Tied for sixth at last years Open.
  4. Francesco Molinari - TA: 22.17, CHG: +2 - His missed cut last week at the Scottish Open may be an aberration, but it is a consideration. He's finished no worse than 26th in any tournament he's entered since The Masters otherwise. T9 at last year's Open with a T39 in 2011.
  5. Martin Kaymer - TA: 23, CHG: +6 - With the exception of a missed cut at the BMW International Open, which could be chalked up to a brief U.S. Open victory hangover, Kaymer has finished no worse than 29th since a T31 at The Masters. Tied for 32nd at last year's Open.
  6. Dustin Johnson - TA: 23.25, CHG: -4.8 - He's been somewhat shaky since withdrawing with an injury at the Shell Houston Open. He's mixed four Top-25s or better with three finishes worse than 30th since his last missed cut.  Not factored into the rankings, but worth noting, is that Johnson is known to play well in windy conditions. T32 last year and T9 in 2012 at The Open.
  7. Rory McIlroy - TA: 23.33, CHG: -3.2 - Might have several wins in his last handful of starts were it not for a propensity to throw up a huge number (particularly on Friday). Despite his occasional foray into the over-par world, he's racked up some strong results. Missed the cut last year and a T60 in 2012 is his real detraction here.
  8. Henrik Stenson - TA: 24.33, CHG: +2.4 - Placed solo second at The Open Championship last year to kick-off a summer that saw him win the Fed-Ex Cup and Race to Dubai. Hasn't finished worse than 7th anywhere since a T34 at The Players.
  9. Jim Furyk - TA: 25.5, CHG: -1 - Hasn't played since a T12 at the U.S. Open, but had been playing exceptionally well until then. Missed the cut last year, but placed T34 in 2012. The test for him will be whether his hot play continues or whether his middling play at The Open does.
  10. Bill Haas - TA: 29.41, CHG: +0.6 - Two Top-30s, two Top-25s, and a Top-10 going back to The Players demonstrates some solid, if not electrifying, form. Missed the cut last year, but a T19 in 2012 should be considered as well.
  11. Matt Kuchar - TA: 29.5, CHG: -2.8 - T15 last year with a T9 in 2012. Kuchar's form, as always, is rather reliable, producing a Top-10 and two Top-15s in his last 5 starts. Bonus (not included in TA), Kuchar plays a fairly low ball flight, something that should give him some edge in windy conditions.
  12. Billy Horschel - TA: 30.17, CHG: +17.8 - Missed the cut last year, but Horschel has found some serious form, finishing no worse than 26th in his last 5 starts with a Top-10 and two Top-15s as well. Better history at The Open would have seen him rank much higher.
  13. Brandt Snedeker - TA: 32.17, CHG: +5.4 - Due to his long ride back from a freak Segway accident (pun intended), Snedeker had been fairly quiet up until a T9 at the U.S. Open. He followed that up with a T11 and a T21. T11 and T3 in his last two starts at The Open.
  14. Miguel Angel Jimenez - TA: 32.2, CHG: -20.83 - Missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but a T9 and T13 in his last two Open starts, and hasn't finished worse than 27th since missing the cut in 2008. 
  15. Keegan Bradley - TA: 33.42, CHG: +5 - Like McIlroy, Bradley loves to squander a good tournament (and my fantasy lineups) with a big number. Two T4s came when he dodged them, but an MC and two worse than 30th finishes came when he didn't. T15 and T34 in his only two visits to The Open.
Kyle Donovan
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