Aug 4, 2014

Movers and Losers - The PGA Championship

All aboard the Rory train! Next stop, The PGA Championship. McIlroy's stock has been quite high all year, but for awhile, many questioned whether he would win despite a slew of Top-10s. The questions are over, for now, with wins in back-to-back starts. The real question, however, is who's playing well enough to beat him? Sergio Garcia has looked excellent, but has come up short twice, not to mention that McIlroy was putting roughly 30 to 40 yards between them on each drive. Geoff Ogilvy, winner of The Barracuda Championship? Not likely, while the win was his first since 2010, it was in a significantly weaker field than most tournaments due to the concurrent WGC event and it was scored using Stableford points, which favorably weights birdies while minimizing the effect of bogeys. Right now, there doesn't appear to be a real challenger to McIlroy's hot streak, but there are surprises every week, just ask Shaun Micheel.


Through mysticism, wisdom, arbitrary numbers pulled from thin air, and some serious number crunching, I assign each player a number, called The Aggregate, each week. That number, out of 100 with lower being better, is a collection of rankings and statistics that generally tell how a player has performed in the recent past and, for fantasy teams, can indicate whether is player is getting hot or cooling off. As I update my Excel Spre- *ahem*- Ancient Book of Knowledge with each week's performances, a differential is generated based on where they were, and where they may be going. One thing you'll notice, based on how the system works, is that the week's winner may not be the top mover. For my power rankings, I take this aggregate and combine it with past performance at that tournament to find my list.

Included below are my top 10 players overall, as well. Some of these players may appear here but not my Power Rankings, depending on how their tournament history affects their positioning and whether they're playing this week. This Top 10 should provide clearer insight as to how a player has been performing over the recent past. 

 Top 10 Movers

  1. Geoff Ogilvy - (+19.8) to 58
  2. John Huh - (+19.4) to 64.4
  3. Charl Schwartzel - (+19.2) to 32.4
  4. Justin Rose - (+19.2) to 8.2
  5. Rickie Fowler - (+18.4) to 15.42
  6. Kyle Stanley - (+18.4) to 43.6
  7. Robert Streb - (+17.2) to 59.2
  8. Bryce Molder - (+17.2) to 65.4
  9. Hunter Mahan - (+17) to 54.2
  10. Patrick Cantlay - (+16.83) to 73.5
Top 10 Losers
  1. James Hahn - (-18.8) to 80
  2. John Peterson - (-16.2) to 100
  3. Peter Malnati - (-16.2) to 100
  4. Will Wilcox - (-16.2) to 65.8
  5. Steve Marino - (-14.4) to 58.2
  6. Roberto Castro - (-14) to 63.8
  7. Jhonattan Vegas - (-13.8) to 80.6
  8. Mike Weir - (-13.4) to 87
  9. Jason Dufner - (-12.8) to 67.2
  10. Aaron Baddeley - (-12.6) to 65.4
Top 10 Overall
  1. Adam Scott - 5.4
  2. Rickie Fowler - 6.6
  3. Graeme McDowell - 6.6
  4. Justin Rose - 8.2
  5. Jim Furyk - 10.4
  6. Sergio Garcia - 10.6
  7. Henrik Stenson - 13.8
  8. Ryan Moore - 16
  9. Angel Cabrera - 17.2
  10. Phil Mickelson - 17.6

Kyle Donovan
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