Week 4 was for the grinders. It was tough to cash in GPPs if you didn’t play Devonta Freeman. It’s nice to have Gronk back on the slate and he has a nice matchup. GoDraft.com has some great contests and some new mini GPPs. Each week you can enter the FREEROLL with a chance to win $1,000,000 and the $2 EXTRA POINT comes with a chance to win $1,000,000. This week I opened a league for my readers called the $5 NFL DFS5s. Come compete against me this week and I’ll highlight the winning lineup next week. I’ll give you another 20 players this week in good spots to produce some DFS wins. We have some real cheap guys on @GoDraft getting lots of touches so check for my GoDraft Value Plays article as well.
- Tom Brady (GoDraft $17,300) Brady is fresh off his bye week and projects to score the most fantasy points at the QB position this week. Vegas projects NE to score 30 points this week. Brady is averaging 370+ yards per game and 3 TD passes. Dallas has been hurt more on the ground than via the pass but Brady has been a volume passer through 3 weeks and that shouldn’t change in this game.
- Matt Ryan (GoDraft $15,500) At this salary I love Ryan this week. He is priced $2,000 less than Brady and Rogers. He projects to have the 3rd highest fantasy points at QB. Atlanta is home and playing a Washington defense that is giving up the least amount of fantasy points per game to RBs. They can be attacked via the pass and Ryan can take advantage over the top of this defense with Julio Jones and Leonard Hankerson. Vegas projects a team total of 28 points for Atlanta this week.
- Aaron Rodgers (GoDraft $17,600) I don’t love this matchup for Aaron Rogers vs St. Louis but he is the best QB in the NFL and Vegas projects Green Bay to score 28 points so he is in play. St. Louis has held previous passing games in check averaging a mere 12 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs through 4 games. If you remove the Kansas City game in week 3 I have Aaron averaging 2 TDs per game and 220+ yards over those other 3 contests. At this price point I would prefer another QB. Vegas and the projections may be right this week but he is a fade for me.
- Eli Manning (GoDraft $14,800) Full disclosure right now, I’m a New York Giants fan! Eli Manning has been great and threw his 1st pick of the season throwing a slant that Reuben Randle needs to make a play on and that goes for a TD instead of an interception. The Giants play San Francisco at home so they can take advantage of the cross country trip the 49ers will be making. I was surprised to see SF play so well defensively last week vs GB. San Francisco is 27th in the NFL in total fantasy points allowed per week and I am all over the Odell Beckham/Manning stack this week.
- Sam Bradford (GoDraft $12,800) This tout may come back to bite me but I like the spot Sam Bradford is in this week. He put up some good numbers last week vs Washington and now he faces a New Orleans defense that is 2nd worst in the NFL vs the pass allowing over 22 fantasy points per game to QBs. Vegas projects Philly to score 27 points this week and I feel Bradford is in a spot to build on his 270 yard 3 TD performance from week 4. Philly is home and I like the salary savings.
- Jamaal Charles (GoDraft $15,100) Kansas City is home and projected to score over 27 points. The Chicago run defense ranks middle of the pack but they have been getting beat in the air and just traded away two guys in the rotation up front. Jamal Charles gets all the touches at RB as he’s a 3 down back and is projected as the top overall scorer this week at the RB position. Play Charles with confidence and cash in on his 25 touches.
- Le'Veon Bell (GoDraft $16,600) Bell is fresh coming off his suspension and is projected to be the #2 RB scorer this week. He also should see 25 touches and is used often as a runner and pass catching threat out of the backfield. Pittsburgh needs to rely on him as Michael Vick tries to get this passing game going after an 11 day layoff.
- Justin Forsett (GoDraft $11,900) I love the spot we find Forsett in this week. Baltimore has two more injuries at WR as Steve Smith and Michael Campanaro are both out. Forsett saw 27 carries in week 4 and that high volume should continue. My only wish is they put the halfback screen back in the offense so we can get some PPR to add to his total. We have a high volume guy, playing as a home favorite, and Cleveland is giving up 23+ fantasy points per game to RBs.
- Todd Gurley (GoDraft $6,600) Did you see that boy run last week? He is the lead back in St. Louis after posting 19 carries last week. Green Bay is surrendering a modest 16 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Game flow could be an issue but I can predict St. Louis will attempt to grind it out on the ground and keep the GB offense off the field. At this price and 20 touches projected I will be playing a lot of Todd Gurley in week 5.
- Doug Martin (GoDraft $8,500) Martin saw 25 touches last week vs a tough Carolina defense. This week will not be as tough when TB takes on Jacksonville at home and is favored in this game. Jacksonville is in the bottom 3rd in total defense. Martin should see at least 20 touches and being the home favorite should yield a few carries later in the game.
- Odell Beckham Jr. (GoDraft $15,600) Odell has not put up huge numbers consistently this year but I feel a big game coming this week. Defenses are bracketing him even though he lines up all over the field and Eli Manning is spreading the ball around because of it. This week Odell exploits the San Francisco secondary who is giving up 27+ fantasy points per game to WRs. Vegas projects the Giants to score 25 points this week at home.
- Julio Jones (GoDraft $17,600) Julio is seeing a record number of targets so far this season. He got to rest last week as Atlanta was up big and they gave Julio the 4th quarter off. Washington has been beat in the air to the tune of 25+ fantasy points per week by WRs. He is projected to be the top scoring WR this week.
- Keenan Allen (GoDraft $13,200) Volume, volume, volume!!! Keenan is going to be the beneficiary of injuries at the WR position for SD. He already had some high target totals and another 15 targets this week would not be surprising. I think he outperforms his projections vs a Pittsburgh secondary allowing 23+ fantasy points per game to WRs.
- Demaryius Thomas (GoDraft $15,200) Thomas is projected to be the #2 point scorer at the WR position this week. Denver plays Oakland who is the 2nd worst defense overall in points allowed to opposing offenses. My concern with Thomas is that Oakland is so bad at defending the TE this year that Peyton goes to Owen Daniels more often this week. I also see game flow possibly favoring a Denver lead late and lots of running.
- Calvin Johnson (GoDraft $15,000) The narrative would be a lot different if Calvin doesn’t get the ball punched loose at the goal line by Kam Chancellor on Monday night. The targets are there, the yardage is OK, and he has the 1 TD but momentum would be higher if he scored that TD to win the game for the Lions vs Seattle. I’d buy low on Calvin this week and play him Arizona because a big game is coming. I don’t love the matchup but Detroit is at home and he’s Calvin Johnson. The one stat that alarms me is they are not throwing the ball to Calvin downfield as most of his 45 targets are within 15 yards. He is too big and physical to not exploit that size advantage.
- Rob Gronkowski (GoDraft $15,800) My token Gronk tout. Brady loves this guy and so should we in cash games. He has a high ceiling and a safe floor. New England is throwing the ball and nobody can cover Gronk. New England has the highest team projected total of the week by Vegas standards and Gronk is in a TE tier by himself every week.
- Mike Evans (GoDraft $13,100) He is just too good to not breakout. Week 3 he saw 17 targets and another 8 targets went his way in week 4 so Winston is looking for him a lot. This TB/Jacksonville game has a projected total of 42 total points but I’d take the over and fit Mike Evans in a lineup.
- Jordan Matthews (GoDraft $10,600) Matthews price is down $1,200. He was targeted 8 times last week and that should continue. I touted Sam Bradford this week also and I predict they hook up for a TD this week. Good matchup at home for Philly and Vegas is predicting 27 points scored by Philly so take advantage of the price reduction.
- T.J. Yeldon (GoDraft $9,300) Yeldon is the lead back, he got 24 touches last week and I see game script playing out similarly for Yeldon this week. I think he gets in the end zone this week and I hope they target him a little more out of the backfield to take advantage of the PPR love.
- Charles Clay (GoDraft $12,200) Clay is seeing volume with all the injuries to the Buffalo WRs. Check on the status of Sammy Watkins but with McCoy and Karlos Williams out they will pass more than they hand off to Anthony Dixon if he is the lead back. Clay had a TD pass called back late in the game and saw 13 targets in week 4.
I wanted to remind you to enter my tournament on GoDraft.com this week. Look in the lobby for NFL $5 DFS5s and play against me SHPPIRATE12 in this 20 person tournament, where the top 3 get paid. Tweet me with any comments/concerns or lineup questions. Check out my value picks article for @GoDraft also. Follow me on twitter @shppirate12 and use my link on @GoDraft when you sign up to get a bonus.
Written by Steven Ricciardi