For those of you new to my column, I do Hail Mary plays each week. My cutoff for a HM play is $3500. By nature, a HM play has some more risk but thankfully I have been able to minimize your risk where I have hit on well over 50% of my HM plays.
I will cheat from time to time by going over the $3500 threshold. When I do, I keep my cheating to a minimum.
1. Rueben Randle ($3500)
NY Giants 45
Boy, I've been watching this story all week. I was hoping like hell Randle would fit into my HM plays...here goes. The Giants will officially be without Odell Beckham this week. The NFL upheld the ruling so we can now plan accordingly. I would never suggest Randle could replace ODB in any capacity but he sure will get his shot. Between Randle and Will Tye, both will see a large increase in targets. Randle is a big WR standing at 6'3" and 210 lbs. He has big game potential in him. Back in Week 7 he hauled in 7/116/1 against the Redskins. Randle has had some issues with drops in the past but he also has the ability to make very nice catches. Remember, at $3500, we don't need Randle to explode for 30 DraftKings points. We really just need him to get us 10.5 points for our cash game plays and 14 points for GPP contests. Anything beyond that is gravy. Randle makes a tremendous cash game and GPP player. I will not hesitate to fire him into every roster I put on DraftKings.
2. Jay Ajayi ($3000)
It looks like the current coaching staff is preparing the next coaching staff. Lamar Miller is a proven runner averaging close to 5.0 YPC this year. Despite his productivity, his carries continue to diminish as the season goes on. Miller is a free agent at the end of the season and it sure does look like Dan Campbell is getting Ajayi some carries so the Dolphins front office knows just exactly what they have in the rookie. Ajayi has the ability to get the ball outside and go through the hole. He has good size (6'0" 220 lb) and decent speed (4.57 40) which is good enough to be a strong NFL runner. I feel like the jury is out a little bit on the long term ability of Ajayi and that is precisely why the Dolphins front office needs an extra look at the young runner. Ajayi should get the touches needed to easily get to 3x value for our cash game line ups and he simply needs to give us 12 to reach 4x value for our GPP line ups. Keep in mind, Ajayi is a HM play. These guys have a lot more risk factored into their pricing.
3. Dwayne Harris ($3000)
NY Giants 45
Odell Beckham was averaging 12.67 targets per game over the last six games. It will not be as simple as taking those nearly 13 targets and handing them to Randle. Those targets will spread out among several players. Harris has proven to be a pretty reliable target for Manning. Harris also returns both kick offs and punts. Harris third in the NFL with 329 yards adding a valuable touchdown to his resume. He also ranks 6th in KO return yardage where he also added a touchdown. Harris will see an uptick in targets this week with ODB out. Harris needs a mere nine points to get our 3x value for cash games and 12 to hit 4x. Harris has a very low floor but his ceiling is very appealing for our GPP line ups.
4. Zach Ertz ($3100)
Ertz saw a season high 13 targets in Week 15 converting those targets into a 8/78/1 stat line. Ertz has scored his only two touchdowns on the season in two of the last three weeks. The Eagles are in a dog fight right now and desperately need a win to stay alive in the weak NFC East. The Redskins are coming in hot this week having won their last two while scoring 59 points in the process. The Eagles will surely need to score to keep pace with the Redskins. As the Eagles offense depends less and less on their running game, Sam Bradford has attempts of 38 and 41 over the last two weeks. If this trend continues, look for Ertz to easily surpass the 3x mark for your cash game line ups and could sneak into 4x territory. Ertz does have a very low floor but his price is low enough for us to absorb a low score.