First of all, I want to thank WeTalkFantasySports.com for giving me an additional forum for talking some DFS. I play a lot of DFS every week and I share my thoughts as I go through my preparations each week. Most have enjoyed some form of ROI.
You can see my previous work here at TheDailyFantasyMinute.com, but for now, let's get to Week 16.
Before I check any prices or match ups, I like to take a quick peak at the 5 worst passing defenses and see if there is anything there to work off of.
5 Worst Passing Defenses (Yardage)
5 Worst Passing Defenses (Touchdowns)
It gets so tiring picking on the Saints each week, but we are here to make money. I can't really spend time wondering what DC the Saints are bringing in for 2016. It stands out to me the Saints are the only team on both lists. In addition to that, The Saints only have six INT's thus far as an entire team. There are five individual defensive players in the NFL who have as many or MORE interceptions than the Saints have as a team.
1. Ben Roethlisberger ($6800)
@ Baltimore 48.5
If it weren't for a couple injuries, Roethlisberger would be in the conversation for MVP honors. Big Ben took on the vaunted Denver pass defense and fully succeeded. The Broncos essentially led the NFL in every defensive category yet the Steelers chose to throw the ball a season high 55 times turning those attempts into 380 yards and 3 TD's. Roethlisberger is averaging 47 pass attempts over his last four games and now has the fortune to fave a Baltimore pass defense who just two weeks ago gave up 5 passing TD's to Russell Wilson. The Steelers are tied for the top Wild Card playoff spot with the Chiefs and NYJ. They are a heavy favorite in this AFC North clash and will have to continue scoring to keep pace. The Steelers pass defense ranks towards the bottom of the NFL putting their offense in must score situations. While it looks like the Ravens may be using Ryan Mallet as their QB this week, this game could shape up as a blow out. Mike Tomlin continues to be an aggressive football coach scoring on average 36.5 points over their last six games. This game has the 3rd highest Vegas total on the board this week with the Steelers projected for 29 of the 48.5. Roethlisberger is piling up points making him a great play for both cash games and your GPP line up cards.
2. Blake Bortles ($6500)
New Orleans -3.5
This game has the highest total in Vegas this week. Surprisingly, the Saints are favored by 3.5 points and I think Vegas is giving points to the wrong team. The Jaguars are a young bunch willing to play aggressive. Like any young team, the Jaguars have been successful at times and have not been as fortunate at others. Blake Bortles is averaging 38.25 pass attempts per game over his last four games adding 11 TD's in that same stretch. The Jags are mathematically still alive in the putrid AFC South but they are going to New Orleans where the Jags are currently 1-5 on the road. That should not slow Bortles down. Just two weeks ago, Bortles thew for 322 yards and 5 TD's in Tennessee against another lousy pass defense. As noted earlier, the Saints have a league low six INT's on the season and have given up a league high 39 passing TD's. This is premium match up for Bortles and with his volume, he makes a solid play for both cash and GPP line ups heading into Week 16.
3. Kirk Cousins ($5500)
Sometimes in fantasy, winning is as simple as playing the hot hand. Cousins is coming off a career day where he threw 4 TD's and added a rushing TD against the Bills who were suppose to have a decent defensive unit. If the Redskins can pull off a road victory, they will seal up the division title. This is the kind of game you want to see a young quarterback build some confidence as he leads his team into the playoffs. The Eagles gave up back to back five TD games in Weeks 11/12. Assuming Cousins can shake off the road bugaboos, getting to 3x or 4x value is a very attainable task. Cousins has thrown for 300+ yards in five of his last eight games. The three games he came up short were against Dallas, Carolina, and New England. The Redskins play better against lesser opponents and the Eagles may be just what Cousins ordered. His price tag of $5500 is very attractive. Cousins has both low floor and a high ceiling which makes him a perfect fit for our GPP cards. I would hesitate on your cash cards where you need more stability at the QB position.
4. Russell Wilson ($7200)
St. Louis 40.5
|Keith Allison Flickr|
5. Matthew Stafford ($6100)
San Francisco 40.5
This game is another low total but the team we are diving into is a heavy favorite at home. The 49ers are a dreadful 1-6 on the road giving up 31.4 points per game over the course of the season on the road. Neither team has much to play for as both have been long eliminated from playoff contention. Stafford has quietly put together a nice stretch of games compiling 12 passing TD's over his last four games and only throwing one INT over his last five. His price tag of $6100 makes him a great value play as we look to save money at the quarterback position allowing us to spend that money elsewhere. Stafford only needs 18.3 points to reach 3x value and 24.4 to reach 4x. The 49ers have proven to lay down when playing across the country. In addition, this is an early start and the 49ers defense may just sleep walk through the first half. Stafford is a safe play for your cash games and has just enough upside to consider for your GPP cards.
NFL Week 16 DFS RB Plays
NFL Week 16 DFS WR Plays
NFL Week 16 DFS TE Plays
NFL Week 16 DFS DST Plays
NFL Week 16 DFS Hail Marys
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