Last week we were able to save our money at the RB position as we found value across the board. Several of the players worked out because their price was so low.
Remember, you need 3x value for a cash card and 4x value for a GPP card.
I used Denard Robinson in nearly every line up I played.
Week 15 Price/Points: $4600/15.4
$4600 x 3 = 13.8 (3x Value)
$4600 x 4 = 18.4 (4x Value)
Robinson did not have a great day but he found a way to grunt out 15.4 points. He eclipsed the 3x threshold for our cash games and nearly made it to 4x for GPP's.
The point here is, due to his inexpensive price tag, you have much more wiggle room. He does not have to have a 30 point DK day in order for us to get a return on our investment. There are many DFS players who will spend big money each and every week for a top tier RB. Let's take a look at the difference.
Week 15 Price/Points: $7500/23.1
$7500 x 3 = 22.5
$7500 x 4 = 30.0
Freeman barely paid off for 3x value and came up pretty short for 4x value. When selecting your expensive DFS players, you need to hit on them consistently to win money. I am not saying using expensive RB's is a bad idea, rather it is much easier to hit on a $3500-$4500 RB vs a $7500 RB. This past week was a prime opportunity to take advantage of DraftKings slow moving pricing.
Let's take a look around and see if we can find some more value at the running back position.
1. David Johnson ($5800)
Green Bay 49
Until DraftKings adjusts their price for David Johnson, I will keep trotting him out there. He is basically the lone man in a backfield being fueled by the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL. Johnson touched the ball 32 times this past week rewarding all DFS players who paid the $5700 it took to get him. Here is the run everyone was talking about last week.
This week, Johnson is only $100 more than last week making him the best option for a value play once again. As I touched on above, you can spend more money on the likes of Adrian Peterson or Devonta Freeman. You just have to remember, they cost more money and must have a much better statistical day in order to get you a return on your investment. Johnson does not need another 150+ yard day and 3 TD's to pay off for us. He simply needs 17.4 for 3x and 23.2 for 4x. The volume he receives makes this a very attainable task. Johnson will be highly owned due to his blow up performance but he should be considered in all DFS formats.
2. Danny Woodhead ($4500)
San Diego 45
Here we have a TNF game. I tread very lightly when it comes to TNF games. As I always say, there are exceptions to every rule. Melvin Gordon was lost for the year in Week 15. This opens the door for Woodhead who blew up for 4 TD's in Gordon's absence. Woodhead suffered from the same terrible OL Gordon was running behind where he was only able to muster 10 yards on 8 carries. The difference maker is his pass catching ability. Woodhead was able to real in 6 catches for 50 yards where he also caught three of his touchdowns. Woodhead will see a dramatic increase in his workload with Gordon out making him an extremely valuable asset to have on your DraftKings roster. Oakland has been stingy against the run lately but the volume Woodhead is about to receive at his price point is hard ignore. As seen in Week 15, Woodhead has GPP appeal but I wouldn't bet on another multiple touchdown game. Woodhead should be considered in all cash games line ups and I might sprinkle him into a GPP line up or two.
3. Cameron Artis-Payne ($4300) - referred to as CAP moving forward
If I am the undefeated Panthers with close to no chance of losing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, there is no way I let Jonathan Stewart play in this game. CAP touched the ball 16 times last week against the Giants and I think you will see more of the same this week. The best things the Panthers can do is get their young players ready for the playoffs in the event another injury takes place. In addition, CAP needs to continue to see reps in the passing game. If the Panthers lose Newton for any reason, their Super Bowl chances are all but lost. The Panthers proved last week they wanted to see more of CAP than Fozzy Whittaker. CAP needs to get better in pass protection and the only way to get better in that area is during practice and live bullets during the game. The Falcons are tied for a league worst with 18 rushing touchdowns given up. If Newton can move the ball early getting his team into the red zone, CAP has a real chance at seeing some GL work capitalizing on the Falcons poor rush defense. There is a very good chance Newton does not play the entire game. We are looking for CAP to get his work in early while Newton is in because I think the offense will sputter greatly if Derek Anderson makes his way into the game. CAP has some boom/bust potential which by definition makes him a better GPP play than cash.
4. DeAngelo Williams ($6500)
The Steelers are heavy favorites heading into Baltimore. Williams has scored 5 total touchdowns in his last four games. He touches the ball consistently in both the running game and the passing game. Pass catching RB's are extremely valuable on DraftKings where you earn a full 1 point in their PPR format. Just two weeks ago, Lamar Miller piled up 113 yards on 20 carries against this same Baltimore team. I expect the same type of day from Williams this week. This game has a high total and the Steelers are heavy favorites. These are all ingredients we are looking for when searching for our RB's. Williams has the ability to have a huge game and his volume should be high enough for us to consider him in both our GPP and cash game line ups.
5. Karlos Williams ($4500)
LeSean McCoy was diagnosed with a torn MCL and the Bills consider him week to week. I will give McCoy credit for seemingly wanting to play through the injury but I think it is time to be put on the shelf. The Bills have little to play for and McCoy would be much better served if he chose to start the heeling process. Williams would be much higher on my list if they were playing a different team. The Cowboys have only given up two 100+ yard rushing days on the entire season. They have given up 14 rushing TD's though boosting Williams value for Week 16. Williams does have 7 TD's combined on the season . Williams has the ability to get through the holes and once he finds green space in front of him, he is able to make the most of what is in front of him. Williams has real good size (6'1"/230 lbs) combined with nice speed (4.48 40) making him a very dangerous runner. Mike Gillislee ($4500) will compete for touches in McCoy's absence. Gillislee is a smaller back with some serious game breaking abililty. Expect to see both runner get their share of touches but Williams is better suited for the heavy lifting. Williams should see 15-20 touches vs Gillislee's 5-10. Both players are priced the same. When all things are equal, I will bet on the heavier workload. Karlos Williams should be considered for your cash game line ups but I would pump the breaks for your GPP line ups.
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