Tight Ends are a weekly conundrum.
Pay big money for a consistent player and face the real possibility of him not hitting 3x/4x value due to his high price tag.
Spend less money on a value TE. Hitting 3x/4x value is a much easier task with a very good chance of hitting 5x value.
If you have paid any attention at all, you might guess I will go for Option #2 just about every single time. Week 16 is no different.
1. Zach Miller ($4000)
Tampa Bay -2.5
As of 12/23/2015, the status of Alshon Jeffery is unknown. What we do have is evidence. Jeffery has had serious issues with soft tissue injuries this season. We can not rely on the Bears to give us any real information. They are now the Patriots of the Mid-West. With that said, I fully anticipate Jeffery sitting this one out. Whether he plays or not, I am willing to spend the $4000 it costs to have Miller in my line up. Since the injury to Martellus Bennett, Miller has caught five of six targets in Week 14 for 85 yards and a TD. In Week 15, he caught all six targets for 57 yards. Bennett and Jeffery were the leading pass catchers in red zone targets. With both of them out for Week 16, I would expect Cutler to utilize Miller much heavier. Miller is a big body (6'5" 240 lb) TE making a nice target for Cutler to look for when deep in the other teams territory. Miller already has five touchdowns on the season and should improve on that number heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Tampa Bay has given up 28 passing TD's on the season making Miller a very nice play for both cash games and GPP contests this weekend.
2. Julius Thomas ($5100)
New Orleans -3.5
This game is off the board in most Vegas casino's. The reason being, we don't know if Drew Brees will play. Drew Brees really doesn't affect the Saints pathetic defense. He does affect how efficient their offense will be though. The Saints legendary bad defense continues to show up where Matthew Stafford last week threw three first half TD's. Blake Bortles is statistically a good quarterback. His short comings actually benefit his pass catchers. He has a Brett Favre mentality meaning he will throw a ball in any situation whether it is a good idea or not. His lack of fear, or understanding of defenses, plays right into our hands as DFS players. Julius Thomas has scored in four of his last five games including a 116 yard game in Week 12 against the Chargers. Thomas should see a large workload this week making him a strong cash game play. Thomas has a serious shot to have a multiple TD game coupled with his ability to go over 100 yards makes him a great GPP play as well. The Saints have made us a lot of money in DFS this season, no reason to abandon the Saints at this point in the season.
3. Will Tye ($3500)
NY Giants 45
There is a little rumor floating around that Odell Beckham may miss a game. I'm not sure just yet, there simply isn't enough coverage on the issue. With ODB out, someone has to benefit on the Giants. Will Tye has been very consistent for Eli Manning catching 19 of his 25 targets over the last four weeks. He has also caught touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Tye is somewhat limited physically as he isn't the tallest or fastest TE in the NFL. He does have a very good set of hands which is why Manning has found trust in him lately. Tye is unlikely to have a massive blow up type game, making him less appealing for our GPP contests. He should have a steady diet of passes though making him a perfect budget TE for our cash line ups.