Yesterday was a wild ride. I wrote my first blog for this site but I also played 100 entries in the FanDuel shot using the value picks I mentioned yesterday. I had a lot of hits last night with J.J. Barea, Raymond Felton, Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin, Wesley Matthews, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Justin Anderson , Charlie Villanueva, Tim Duncan, and of course my pick of the night David Lee who was well on his way to a triple double until the aforementioned Charlie V got red hot and kept Lee on the bench the whole 4th. This helped me double my money on the 100 entries with the best entry coming in 71st out of 115606.
That said I had 2 HUGE misses with Jon Leuer and Salah Mejri. I had huge faith in Leuer as well, so he was in 75% of my lineups but foul trouble ruined his game, Of the 25% of lineups I had without Leuer, 100% of them cashed in the shot. The takeaway here is that sometimes it's good to go away from the most obvious pick of the night as not only does it prevent disaster but it differentiates you from everybody else. Leuer was massively owned last night(42% in the shot, 60% in the slam) and if you didn't have him, you had a really good shot to win last night. Another thing I was wrong about yesterday was saying the winning entry would be well over 400. The winning lineup was 382.8 and the mathematically best possible lineup was only 417.2(and nobody ever comes close to the perfect lineup, though I did play every player in it in various lineups).
On to today, where there is so much value I'm likely going to just be scratching the surface here. Coach Popovich has decided to rest the entire core of the Spurs which certainly makes for some intriguing plays. Also don't forget the Pelicans are basically starting a D League team today for the 2nd game in a row. My advice for playing today would be to diversify your portfolio, and don't be afraid to leave cash on the table. As per usual, I will just be focusing on the players who are $5500 or lower. It's up to you to decide which stars you want to balance your lineup with. Also worth noting that I am ignoring the 6PM est matchup between the Pacers and Nets as it is not included in the main FanDuel slate.
Make sure to check out today's FanDuel GPPs and if you're not already a member of FanDuel go ahead and sign up through that link. I also just started a DFS twitter account - follow me @Yolo_Contendere
- Patty Mills $3800 - In previous games where Tony Parker has sat, Mills has been disappointing. Last game without Parker old man Andre Miller got the start instead of Mills and he only played 18 minutes. However this game is a little different. Miller might get the start again, but this time the spurs have much less depth. I suspect Mills won't play a crazy amount of minutes, but when he's on the floor he should have very high usage. He did take 11 shots in the previous game Parker was out which is usually plenty to get him to value.
- Matthew Dellavedova $3500 - Kyrie Irving is out saturday for rest which puts Delly in line for the start. In 11 previous starts this season, Dellavedova has averages of 9.9 points, 6.2 assists, 2.3 boards. That's nothing special but at minimum salary and a guarantee of 30+ minutes playing time he is a great value today.
- Tim Frazier $3900 - This play is only valid is Jrue Holiday sits once again. If Jrue is playing....you better play him, but if he's not Frazier once again becomes a fantastic value. The best news of the day is that the NO/TOR game is at 7pm so you'll have a chance to find out if Jrue is playing and who's starting for the Pelicans before lineup lock time. He's getting around 28 minutes a game and making the most of the minutes in his time on the court behind Toney Douglas, who isn't a bad play himself. He's also done this against a couple very tough defenses and should get a little easier and faster matchup today with a tired Toronto team.
- Danny Green $3900 - Coming off his own day of rest, and with the entire core of the spurs resting Green should see a huge bump in both minutes and usage. This is somewhat of a no brainer though I'm noticing most of the major projection sites only have him modestly projected while they expect Kevin Martin to be the big scorer. However I don't feel they're adequately taking into account how many extra shots Green should get in a starting unit with Miller, Anderson, Diaw, and West compared to Parker, Duncan, Leonard, and Aldridge. If Danny Green puts up 10-15 shots in this game, he should be a fantastic value to go along with his defensive stats and rebounding.
- Moe Harkless $3800 - Since entering the starting lineup for Meyers Leonard Harkless has been a great value. If for some reason he gets benched ignore this all, but if not he's got a great matchup with the 76ers and can look to possibly improve on his hot streak.
- Kyle Anderson $3500 - Anderson put up a bit of a dud last night but that was in large part due to playing next to usage monsters like Aldrigde, Parker, and Duncan. He's taken more than 10 shots only once all year, but when he did he put up 7.5x value and that wasn't in as good of a spot as this is. This is a high risk high reward play for sure but one you would be wise not to ignore.
RED ALERT: Leuer doubtful and Chandler out. This puts Len in play but even more so Teletovic. Obviously ignore all my calls to play Leuer— Yolo_Contendere (@Yolo_Contendere) March 26, 2016
Jon Leuer - $4600 - After getting in very early foul trouble and barely playing last night, tonight is a perfect night to take advantage of the recency bias and give Leuer another shot in another juicy matchup. This obviously only applies if Tyson Chandler is in fact out again, but I think he will be. The same sites I saw projecting him at 41 points last night are now projecting him near 15 points. Did anything change? Nope. Also he should be a bit more rested than the rest of his team. If Chandler is indeed out, don't sleep on Leuer today.
- David West $3500 - West has been hit or miss in his previous starts, and will likely draw another start today. However this time, like the other Spurs I've mentioned so far, he's in a far better situation to score big. The Spurs have just 3 big men worth playing tonight unless you think they're going to kick the tires on Matt Bonner, so West's minutes should be near 30. Every single time he's approached 30 minutes he's been a fantastic value. Don't hesitate to feature West heavily in your lineups.
- Boris Diaw $3500 - You'd probably be shocked to learn Diaw is only 33 years old. Like West, you have to figure he'll get the start(unless they start Boban instead) and that he'll get near 30 minutes of work. If this happens, he'll be an outstanding value as he still has great per-minute stats. It's in no way crazy to roll out West and Diaw together at PF and pay up everywhere else. In the one recent game where both Duncan and Aldridge were out like they are tonight, both Diaw and West put up excellent value.
- Carl Landry $4500 - His price is a bit higher than the two Spurs mentioned above but Landry will be getting another start with noel/okafor both out again. Landry has been outstanding in the minutes he's had lately and if he's out there for another 25 minutes tonight he should return great value as well. What else is nice is that there's literally so much value stacked at PF tonight that none of these players should be too highly owned in tournaments.
- Boban Marjanovic $3500 - The 7'3" 300lbs Serbian monster was in this situation recently on March 5th, and managed to put up good value in only 18 minutes of play. As you can see if you click his link, he has absolutely gaudy per 36 minute numbers. If by chance he gets the start over Diaw today, he could really do some damage. The one time he played more than 20 minutes(21 to be exact) this season, he put up 10x value. Today he could play 30 minutes and be not only the best value center but the best center on the board. He could just as easily play 10 minutes and give you nothing. I'd say his floor is literally 0 with a ceiling of 50. this is as high risk/high reward as it gets, and you may find yourself regretting it either way.
- Alexis Ajinca $3800- Similar to Boban, Ajinca is a 7'2" slow footed monster. He's also coming off a massive game in which he started and played 36 minutes. Does Gentry start him again? Who knows, but if he does he won't be in a great matchup. Still the good news is that he's in the 7pm est game, so we should know if he's starting before lineups lock. If he's starting again, ignore him at your peril. If Jrue is out again, the Pelicans have almost nobody to take shots and Ajinca is not shy about chucking up mid range jumpers all game to go along with the rebounding his 7'2" frame helps him with. Similar to Boban, his per minute production is at an elite level, it just depends if he gets minutes. Basically every winning lineup from 2 days ago featured Ajinca and he's likely to be low owned again.
That's it. Good luck to everybody today. I'll try to update this throughout the day as news rolls out.