Yesterday was a somewhat bizarre day in DFS where Luke Babbitt put up a huge dud at around 60% GPP and 80% cash ownership and Alexis Ajinça was the value of the day at around 1% ownership. Today is shaping up to be another weird day with crazy value all over the place. While everything I say here is pure conjecture, the one thing I'm fairly certain of is that today's winners in the big Fanduel GPPs will score well over 400, and that's because there's a crazy amount of value all over the board. I'll be focusing on players at $5500 or below, mostly well below.
I just started a DFS twitter account - follow me @Yolo_Contendere
PG ValuesThere's seriously so much value at PG that I couldn't begin to mention it all so I'll narrow it down to 3.
- J.J. Barea $3800 - I should start by saying, that even before I got news of Deron Williams & Devin Harris sitting I was all over Barea. In three games against the warriors this year, often with the Mavs at full strength he's had 36.6, 24.1, and 26.1. All of those would be fantastic value. Now Barea is actually looking at a start, and probably well over 30 minutes, possible 40 with Parsons, Williams, and Harris all ruled out already. This is as solid of a play as I've ever seen in NBA DFS.
- Raymond Felton $3900 - It's important to remember that it's still Ray Felton, and the Warriors play good defense against SG which is likely the position he starts at tonight. That said, with 40 minutes quite possible and 30+ a near lock with literally nobody outside of Justin Anderson that could even come in a blowout mop up role, he's just as good of a play as Barea. When Felton plays over 30 minutes, he's a near lock for 25+ FDP. As if the guarantee of 6x+ value isn't enough, it's worth noting that most of those games had usage monsters Dirk, Parsons, and Williams healthy and playing. In other words as if Barea and Felton weren't already good plays with their guaranteed minutes, their usages should be through the roof without 3 top options.
- Elfrid Payton $5400 - This could be a good spot to get a player with huge potential at relatively low ownership. Payton has been announced as the starter and is coming off a massive triple double off the bench. He's playing Miami which isn't a great matchup, but it's not as bad as it looks either, especially if Dragic sits and Udrih starts or anything along those lines. I personally only love him if Oladipo is out(he's currently questionable). However Vucevic is already out and during the time that he's been out Oladipo's usage has been off the charts. So if BOTH of them are out, that's where Payton becomes a risky but potentially great play with huge upside.
- Wesley Matthews $4100 - Similar to Barea/Felton, Matthews gets a gigantic bump both in minutes and usage with Williams/Dirk/Harris/parsons all out. I think 30-35 is a reasonable projection for him tonight while he likely plays 40 minutes. At his price it's very hard not to play him today. He has had a habit of just disappearing on offense at times but the last couple games since parsons has been out he's had 6.6x and 9.3x value. That's with Deron/Dirk/Harris all still there. Play him.
- Manu Ginobili $3500 - Despite resting 4 players including their best player in Leonard, the spurs are favored by Vegas in this game by 13.5 points with 103 points scored. SOMEBODY has to score these points and play the minutes. The Spurs play another big game against the Thunder tomorrow, so it's also possible to say that Park/Aldridge won't be asked to play huge minutes either since they'll be needed tomorrow. Per minute, Ginobili is still a great player. If he manages to play 25 minutes, he's a very good bet for 5-7x value.
- Kyle Anderson $3500 - With BOTH Leonard and Green out, Anderson is going to get even more time and usage than I can remember him getting before. He will all but surely start and get around 25-30 minutes. He's a bit risky but getting 20-30 FDP from him tonight isn't a stretch and at easily the worst position on FanDuel today where you have to play 2 players, he's a very solid value choice.
- Justin Anderson $3500 - The other Anderson should be a good potentially low ownership play. Justin Anderson hasn't done much of anything ever, but tonight he literally HAS to play some decent minutes unless the mavs choose to play Barea/Felton/Matthews 48 minutes each, which isn't going to happen. The 21st overall pick in this years draft is primed to get a decent allotment of minutes and is in a game where garbage time is pretty much a guarantee. Don't sleep on him today.
- Jon Leuer $4600 - This is a no brainer. Chandler is ruled out. Leuer is starting and has had 32.6 and 38.8 in his last two games. He's facing the Kings. He's likely to play 35-40 minutes. Play Jon Leuer unless you're trying really hard to be a contrarian tonight.
- David Lee $4800 - This is my narrative special of the night. David Lee is going to be playing his first game back at Oracle after winning the NBA championship with the Warriors last year. He's likely to get a huge ovation from the crowd before the game and should be extra pumped up for this matchup tonight. With Dirk out(along with all the others), Lee is likely starting and should get plenty of usage. Even with everybody healthy he put up 36.2 against the Warriors a week ago in jut 26 minutes. If Lee approaches 30 minutes, he could be a massive value tonight. In the two games against the Warriors this year he's seemed extra locked in as if he's trying to prove they made a mistake by benching him and subsequently trading him away. Don't sleep on D. Lee tonight.
- David West $3500 - It's a little crazy seeing David west at just $3500 but he's buried on a very talented Spurs team. With Boris Diaw sitting this game out and the Spurs likely intent on limiting Duncan/Aldridge tonight, West could and should see a pretty big bump in minutes and production tonight. If he can get 25-30 minutes tonight, he should be a lock for 6x+ value
- Salah Mejri $4700 - Mejri has been on fire the last few games and it's tough to ignore that especially with the Mavs minus 3 starters tonight. The matchup vs. the Warriors is awful for the 7'2" big man but once again it comes down to the "who else is going to play" factor. With little else value wise available at center, he could be a great play if he manages to to see 30 minutes like he has the past couple games.
Honorable Mentions - Tim Duncan, Boban Marjanovic, Jusuf Nurkic
That about does it. In case it's not obvious, the theme of the day is targeting some of the Mavericks in what should be a high paced value filled matchup with the Warriors. With all this value you should have plenty of $ left to spend up on the studs tonight like Curry, Harden, Cousins, and the Greek Freak if you want. Good luck to all.