Happy Easter to everybody. Yesterday was very hit or miss for me in NBA DFS. I made around 200 entries(which Fanduel did their best to screw up, but that's another story) and managed to break a little above even mostly due to coming in 56th/86705 in the Shot with one entry at 353.60 that made up for a lot of misses I had. Also helps that in addition to my value plays I had tons of Lebron James, CJ McCollum, Nick Batum, and Paul Millsap .
The good picks yesterday were clearly Tim Frazier, Elfrid Payton, Andre Miller, Moe Harkless, Kyle Anderson, David West, Mirza Teletovic, Ed Davis, and of course Boban Marjanovic. The guys I was actually smart enough to heavily play were Frazier, Payton, Boban, and tons of David West. I wish I had followed my own words and played much more Moe Harkless and Ed Davis. Ugh. I also erased John Henson from the list because I wasn't feeling it, whoops.
The bad picks were... all the rest. In reality, most of them did somewhere between 4x-5x value which isn't enough to really "hurt" you especially in a cash game, but I heavily invested in Danny Green yesterday since he was in a fantastic spot and he responded by missing all 4 mostly wide open 3pt shots he took early in the game and got himself benched in a game I expected him to play nearly 40 minutes.
Oh well, on to today. Once again worth noting that I'm not including the 3:30pm est game since it's not in the main fanduel slate. Also be careful to watch for players being scratched last minute, especially some of the Golden State Warriors who are currently favored by 21.5 points in the 8pm matchup with the 76ers. Also be careful not to fall for the "well I should just fade that game" trap. The warriors were heavily favored friday as well but they seemed to know it and let Dallas linger in that whole game while the Splash brother put up huuuge lines. I'm not saying go all in on the warriors here, I'm just saying don't ASSUME a blow out ever. Also remember these are only players $5500 and below.
Make sure to check out today's FanDuel GPPs and if you're not already a member of FanDuel go ahead and sign up through that link. I also just started a DFS twitter account - follow me @Yolo_Contendere
- José Juan Barea $4000 - I love this spot for Barea. Not only should he be seeing near 30 minutes with Deron Williams out for this game, but he'll be facing the Kings who allow tons of points to opposition point guards. Just from watching too, they tend to have a real problem with undersized good shooters like Isiah Thomas who has torched them this year. If anything gives me pause here it's that for whatever reason, at least off the bench he hasn't done great against them this year, but he'll be playing a different set of defenders with the starters today. I LOVE this spot for Barea.
- Ray Felton - $4100 - This matchup is almost as good as Barea's. It's important to remember Devin Harris is back for this game so we may see a bit less of the Barea/Felton combo, but probably not too much less and Dallas still badly lacks depth in the guard position right now so I think he's safe to get around 30 minutes and he'll be playing many of those minutes at the PG spot. Like Barea, he's mysteriously struggled in the minutes he's had against the kings this year, but I think that ends today.
- Jordan Clarkson $5500 - Right at the top of "value" picks Clarckson is in a good spot here with D'Angelo Russell hurt this game. I don't think Russell being out raises Clarkson's ceiling much but it definitely raises his floor. He'll likely now be the starting PG for the Lakers up against a Wizards team that's allowing huge performances at the position.
- Wesley Matthews $4400 - Matthews hasn't been too reliable this season but is riding a very hot streak since Parsons went down with injury moving him to the starting SF spot. As I warned with Barea/Felton, Devin Harris is back for this contest and could cut in to his minutes a bit. However Dallas is in MUST WIN mode so as long as this contest is in jeopardy I expect Matthews to log huge minutes since he's one of their better defenders as well as being red hot right now as a shooter.
- Brad Beal $5500 - Also right at the top of "value" play Beal is coming off a huge game and the Wizards are in desperation mode playing their oft injured star 45 minutes in the last game to try to scratch and claw into a playoff spot. Against an inept Lakers defense, this is a great spot for Beal to continue his recent mostly-hot streak. Just remember Beal has a tendency to just disappear for entire games at times.
- Michael Beasley $4700 - This is a risk/reward play for sure but there's not much at SF today worth talking about which makes him much more appealing when you HAVE to pick two SF. The former #2 overall pick/bust has been remarkably effective for the Rockets since picking him up and his price has not followed accordingly. In fact he's hit over 6x value in 6 of his last 9 games.
- Otto Porter $5200 - After a prolonged cold stretch Porter has been playing great the last 8 games. Like Beal, he sometimes just completely disappears but up against old man Bryant today, I have faith Porter can put up a solid game again.
- Nene Hilario $4000 - Markieff Morris suffered a calf strain in the previous game and is (highly) questionable for this contest. It may be hard to get a status update before lineups lock but if he is in fact out it's Nene who will likely get the start in a pretty great matchup with the Lakers. In games where he's had minutes, Nene has been very effective from a fantasy standpoint this year.
- Jerami Grant $5100 -Decimated by injuries, Grant is now the starting center for the 76ers. I wouldn't expect a 8-10x game out of him or anything but he should be a reliable choice for not too much cash in an uptempo game with the warriors. It's also worth noting that Andrew Bogut is out so the Warriors will be even more uptempo and don't have their normal rim protection.
- Salah Mejri $4500 - You might want to be paying up for Boogie Cousins, but if not don't sleep on Salah. He predictably had a not so great game against a small and uptempo'd warriors team. This game also carries a bit of a different red flag in that Cousins tends to cause foul trouble and Salah is by all means prone to that. THAT SAID if Salah can stay out of foul trouble, he could be in for a big night as his size will be needed vs. the kings and he should see all the minute he can handle on the court without fouling out. If he starts and plays 30 minutes, he is a candidate for 7x plus. Just be aware of the risk.
- Ian Mahinmi $4800 - I'd like this more if he was a little cheaper but coming off a great game and getting the "rockets bump" big men tend to get, this is a good spot for him. His floor is also a little safer than Mejri.
Good luck to all and have a Happy Easter.