After a rather odd weekend of NBA DFS, Monday's slate is absolutely ripe with value. We're hitting that time of year that players are getting rested in addition the the normal slew of injuries creating value spots. With all the info I'm putting in the article, it's a near lock that several more significant pieces of news will drop that will add more people to this list, or potentially take them off. The key is to be picky and diversify.
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- LATE ADDITION: Darren Collison $5500 - With Rondo(along with Gay, Cousins, and Belinelli) OUT, Collison becomes a near elite play not just as a value play, but in general. His usage should be through the roof and his minutes should be quite safe. There's some risk as his price isn't that low and this game will likely be a huge blowout for the blazers. If the game somehow stays close, 40 points isn't out of reach in a high paced matchup for the former starting point guard.
- J.J. Barea $4000 - Barea has been on this list several times the last few days and will continue to be as long as Deron Williams is on the shelf. He didn't have a great game Sunday yet still made 5x value in a blowout loss. Due to the score he only played 27 minutes to Felton's 35, so don't be surprised if that flips if the game stays close, which is should.
- Raymond Felton $4100 - Like Barea, as long as D-Will is out there's just no good reason not to ride Felton. Sure he isn't a "good basketball player" but he chucked up 12 shots Sunday and 16 the day before. I expect more of the same even with Devin Harris eating in to his time a little bit. At this price it's a fairly safe pick as well.
- Patrick Mills $3700 - With both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili on the shelf Mills managed just a measly 11.4 FDP on Saturday which really bummed me out since I had high hopes for him in that matchup. However it's worth noting he did play a full 31 minutes which was a team high. In the only other game in the last 2 years where Mills has seen 30+ minutes, he scored 39.7FDP. Don't let the recency bias steer you clear of Mills in what is once again a great spot with just old man Andre Miller behind him. Miller played outstanding but was still only in there for 18 minutes. UPDATE: With Leonard also out, this further improves Mills chances at getting shots.
- Tim Frazier $4000 - With the ball dominating style he's been playing, Frazier might be the safest of these picks, especially going up against the Knicks. This is assuming Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole are both out again, which I would wager they will be considering the Pelicans are doing everything they can to tank the season at this point. Averaging a very stable 23.3 points the last 5 games with decent upside Frazier makes for a great value.
- Shane Larkin $3700 - Larkin was named the starter 2 games ago and got a good bump in minutes which resulted in a bump in production with 28.1 and 25.7 points in those two games. Can you count on him to do this again vs a good heat team? No way. However it's not unreasonable to use Larkin in some GPP entries. The minutes will be there and Miami has played with more pace lately. With so much value at this position it's hard to imagine he'll be highly owned either so it's a good way to distinguish yourself.
- Wesley Matthews $4400 - Like Felton and Barea, Matthews has an increased role with Deron Williams out, but he already had a bigger role with Chandler Parsons out as well. He didn't have a great game Sunday but his minutes are very safe right now and his usage is way up. I expect a good game from him vs. the Nuggets on Monday.
- Norman Powell $3700 - With Terrence Ross out Powell has played big minutes put up 6-7x value. His usage rate isn't too high but if Ross is out again I would definitely look to Powell as a great value with potentially another 35 minutes on the floor.
- LATE ADDITION: Omri Casspi $4500 - With Rondo/Cousins/Gay/Belinelli all OUT Casspi becomes a very intriguing play. It's worth noting when Gay has sat and Casspi has started in the past this year, he has really disappointed several times. However, this is the 3 main options on offense all out for the Kings this time, so ignoring Casspi in this spot would be foolish.
- Alonzo Gee $3600 - Alonzo Gee is one of the players that you can easily not notice that he's even in the game. However he's started and played over 41 minutes in the last two games, returned excellent value. Gee's upside is capped pretty much at what he did in his last game, but as long as he's starting with almost zero depth behind him on a broken team on the highway to hell, I see no reason not to fill out your lineup with Gee.
- Maurice Harkless $4000 - Harkless has been great since entering the starting lineup. He's seeing nearly 30 minutes a game now and making good use of the minutes. In a good matchup versus the Kings, unless you hear something about him being benched, I would look at Harkless to return good value again.
- P.J. Tucker $4800 - With almost no forward depth at all Tucker is being forced into a larger role than he should probably have. This pick makes much more sense if Chandler and/or Leuer are out again, but even if they play this is a good spot for him vs. the Timberwolves.
Jon Leuer $4400 - This is of course assuming Chandler sits again and that Leuer doesn't get sick again. If those two conditions are met there's no reason to believe he won't start and play plenty of minutes against the Timberwolves. Let's just hope he doesn't get in foul trouble again. If Leuer doesn't play again for any reason, or even just doesn't start, I would certainly be pivoting to Mirza Teletovic who might be a good play anyway.Leuer is in fact playing today, but with Chandler back as well, he's no longer a great play at $4400. You'll need to look elsewhere for value.
- Willie Cauley-Stein $3900 - In the past when Cousins has been out this year it's been mostly Koufos that has benefitted and that could likely be the case again. This play is two-fold though. Cauley-Stein is coming off back to back excellent games in 30 minutes each game. While his own coach seems to try to belittle him there's no denying that he's starting to really show why he was taken 6th overall this year. With Cousins out and Cauley-Stein red hot, this is a great spot for him. Just remember, he's had plenty of games where he's done just about nothing this year, including some where Cousins sat out. UPDATE: Cousins is OUT along with Rondo, Belineli, and Gay. This has gone from good to bad, to incredible matchup over the last 12 hours. WCS is a great pick today.
- Kosta Koufos $3800 - In the last two games without Demarcus Cousins in the lineup Koufos has been huge with 29.8 FDP (8.5x value) and 35 FDP (10x value). If Cousins is in fact out then it's hard to ignore his value in this spot, even if he is ya know...Kosta Koufos. UPDATE: DeMarcus Cousins is OUT, so feel free to roll with Koufos.
- Jusuf Nurkic $4300 - Nurkic has always been productive on a per minute basis and lately he's been getting those minutes. If Faried returns, it MIGHT cut into that but I would have to figure at this point the Nuggets are interested in seeing some development from Nurkic. At his price, I'd be happy to see him get 20 or more minutes in what could very well be a matchup against David Lee or Javale McGee for all we know. He is an inherently high risk play but could pay off big time in GPP play.
- Rudy Gobert $5500 - At the top end of what I consider value this is purely a matchup play. A fully rested Go-Bear vs a tired awful Lakers team could be a recipe for a good game from Gobert. He'll go low owned most likely, yet in his last game vs the lakers he put up a massive 48.6 FDP which would be good for nearly 9x value. He's been slumping lately but his salary is finally catching up. It's never a good idea to wait until a great player has a huge game to break out of his slump. Rudy Gobert is a great player and when he's right he's worth a lot more than $5500 and the Lakers are just what the doctor ordered.
That's all for now. Good luck to everybody today. If you want to play me in a H2H today, use this link. I promise I'll be using several players listed here.