Friday was an absolutely crazy night. I personally only make about 120% of my investment back which I'd usually be happy about, but that number would have been much much higher if Victor Oladipo hadn't had a concussion, JJ Barea hadn't hurt his groin, and if Ramon Sessions played as anywhere near as well as he did in the previous game. Oh, and if the Greek Freek hadn't got in foul trouble, that would have been nice as well since he was on pace for around 80 FDP. However that's the brutal nature of NBA DFS at the end of the season.
Also honestly it would have been nice if there wasn't SO much value. The plays I was originally highest on did fantastic. In fact, they were some of the highest overall scores of the night. Cole Aldrich was an absurd 15x value and the top score of the night, while Jamal Crawford and David West were among the highest scorers at their positions. If I had just locked those three guys in I would probably be jumping in my pool of gold like Scrooge McDuck right now but since there was so much value on the board I spread my money around quite a bit. While that's a generally good tactic, I'm guessing the optimal lineup for Friday likely had a ton of money left on the table.
The winner of the $2 Shot was comprised of all players I played in various lineups and didn't even feature David West or Robert Covington. My point is, the amount of random garbage that occurred on Friday was extremely hard to predict. In fact, they spent 59700 but if they had West and Covington in their lineup they would have broke 400 and won by a large margin. There's only roughly a week left in NBA DFS and my guess is there will be many days like this. Don't be afraid to put out seemingly stupid lineups and don't be afraid to leave money on the table.
Let's move on to Saturday where there's not a lot of obvious value just yet, so keep your eyes open and try to pay attention to which teams have something to play for and which don't. Also if a team has nothing to play for, look for the good "garbage" players to target on that team. These are a few that pop out as of Friday night, but pay attention to my twitter to get any other updates as they come.
Make sure to check out today's FanDuel GPPs and if you're not already a member of FanDuel go ahead and sign up through that link. I also just started a DFS twitter account - follow me @Yolo_Contendere
- Ronnie Price $3800 - This is not a high upside play, but more of a safe value which could help you on Saturday's smaller slate. Price is starting a playing 30+ minutes in a somewhat high paced offense. In his 4 starts since Brandon Knight went down he's been great 3/4 times with the one bad game against a very tough Utah defense. This will be against a very weak Pelicans defense, so I think Price is if nothing else a safe play, even though he really should not be a starting PG in the NBA right now.
- Tony Allen $4500 - "First Team All Defense" is a sneaky value play for Saturday. He actually was one of the top SG in general on Friday at nearly 10x value and has played 30 and 37 minutes in the last two games. Believe it or not, the Grizzlies are still the 6th seed in the tough western conference and are fighting for playoff seeding. Now that he seems fully healthy again, Allen is in a good spot to get another 30+ minutes a be a great value in a high paced affair with the Warriors.
- Seth Curry $4400 - While this is strictly a GPP play, I like Curry in this spot. I like it even more if Rajon Rondo is out again which is certainly possible. Casspi and Belinelli are already ruled doubtful and it seems like the Kings want to see what the other Curry is all about. He's coming off an bad game after a string of very good ones so his ownership should be low, but I think Curry will continue to play quite a bit and with a plus matchup against OKC this is a perfectly great spot to play Seth. Especially if you believe in genetics.
- P.J. Tucker $5500 - Right at the fringe of being a "value" play PJ Tucker is in full beast mode right now. He's a constantly risky play so I'd stick to GPP only with him but he's had so big games with only a few duds inbetween while he plays on a highly depleted Suns team. This matchup is as good as it gets and I'm bettering this is no dud.
- Bobby Portis $3800 - This is a bold pick on my part considering how generally disappointing Bobby has been with Gibson out. However The Bulls are now eliminated from playoff contention, and I think this will drastically change their rotations. While I think Mirotic will still play plenty I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol get limited or no minutes while the "free Bobby Portis" movement should finally take hold the last few games of the season now that the Bulls have officially been a huge disappointment this year. Portis will not be a highly owned player on Saturday, but he should be.
- Mirza Teletovic $5500 - Barely a value play(my requirement is $5500 or under) but definitely worth mentioning. In his last 9 games, Despite not starting, Mirza has become one of the best plays in NBA DFS. He's getting 30 minutes a game and easily making value. His price keeps creeping up but I expect this will be another excellent game for the Teletubby against a weak New Orleans Defense.
- Alexis Ajinca $4500 - I bet you didn't realize Ajinca put up 53 FDP on Friday. He went very low owned with Aldrich getting most of the value money at C. While Aldrich was fantastic Ajinca was near 12x value himself as the centerpiece of a horrific Pelicans team. In a good matchup with the Suns Ajinca makes for a good play on Saturday once again. He's got to be one of the slowest unathletic players in the NBA, but you can't argue with his per minute value. If he sees big minutes again Saturday he's likely a strong bet to be a good play.
That's all for now, hope you all have a successful DFS Saturday.