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- Ramon Sessions $4100 - Let's be clear here here, ignore this entirely if John Wall plays. However, if Wall is out(and he did miss shootaround this morning and is listed as UNLIKELY to play), Sessions is an elite value play. He put up 40FDP last game in a start and while expecting a repeat of that would be a stretch, his upside is much higher than the other two I discuss here. Sessions is a high usage player that might even be a decent play if Wall plays since Wall will be less than 100%, but if Wall is out, you'd have to be crazy not to play Sessions.
- Pablo Prigioni $3500 - Considering the fact that the guy simple does not score the ball, this is the first and likely only time I'll even mention him here. However the Clippers are not only resting Chris Paul, Deandre Jordan, and J.J. Redick, but Austin Rivers has been ruled out as well. That leaves Prigioni as the only active PG on the roster. Prigioni basically never scores the ball but he does have a decent per minute production. The Clippers will likely opt to have Crawford or even Wilcox handle the ball a bit but you have to assume Prigioni at least sees a season high in minutes near 30 which should be plenty for him to hit value. This isn't a high upside play but even at 38 years old it seems like a pretty safe play.
- Patrick Mills $3500 - With Tony Parker out with rest, and Manu, AND Green as well, Mills finds himself in a good spot against Denver. He's been a mixed bag in these situations and Andre Miller could eat into his time so beware, but still at minimum value and likely starting, you'd be wise to have some exposure to Mills. If he plays near 30 minutes he's a great value.
- Jamal Crawford $4600 - I would consider this the elite lock play of the day since Crawford will be near 40 minutes and have insane usage with almost all of the clippers ball handlers and scorers on the bench. However the matchup is awful against Utah. Make no mistake though, Crawford has extreme upside today at his price. Just look at his previous starts this year in similar situations. In other words his ceiling is literally 55 or so but his floor is about 10 making him a great GPP play. He actually had a similar game last year against Utah and put up 27.6FDP, so that's encouraging.
- Garrett Temple $3800 - With John Wall looking like he'll be out again, Temple becomes the defacto backup point guard. He actually played an even split of minutes with Sessions in the previous game and had 32.5FDP which is a fantastic value. Unlike Sessions though, he's a bit riskier. If the game stays close I'd expect to see a lot of Sessions. Still, he's a value that cannot be ignored today.
SF Values(FWIW, I suggest spending up at this position)
- Kyle Anderson $4100 - Even in only about 20 minutes of time, Anderson has been playing quite well lately. He's been seeing more consistent playing time and it's paid off for him. Anderson is more than capable of putting up a dud, but in a good matchup and with 30+ minutes of playing time coming his way most likely, I love Anderson in this spot.
- Jeff Green $4200 - His price has dropped quite a bit recently. With Wes Johnson and basically every other significant player on the Clippers out, Green should see a good bit of usage and a ton of minutes tonight. I'm not worried about his bruise and he's listed as "playing". With only old man Paul Pierce in his way for playing time, I expect him to see 30+ minutes and I expect him to put up quite a few shots in those minutes.
- David West $3600 - As a warning, Popovich tends not to ride guys for huge minutes even when it makes sense. The Spurs are locked into the 2 seed after last night's loss so I don't expect more than 25-30 minutes from West. Still, he'll all but certainly be starting, and should have great usage on offense. The Spurs are listing Duncan as playing, which I don't believe for one moment but it's what they're saying. If Duncan is in fact listed out later today, then West goes from being a great play to an elite play. At 3600 even if he sees just 25 minutes, against the nuggets that should be plenty to be worth his price.
- Andrew Nicholson $4300 - His price is up a bit, but with Aaron Gordon out today and Ghostface Ilya glued to the bench recently, I think Nicholson will likely draw the start, and if not the start get 30 minutes of action tonight. Over Nicholson's recent hot streak he's basically been playing just 20 minutes behind Gordon, so if he gets the significant bump I expect, he should be in line for a great night. The only thing giving me pause here is the matchup with Miami. However...he had 25.7FDP in just 17 minutes of action against Miami. Don't sleep on Nicholson today.
- Derrick Williams $4600 - The price bugs me a little bit but with few great PF options Williams once again makes for a high upside and fairly high risk player in what's likely to be another start. The 76ers are an awful team, so if the former top pick has one of his rare games where he looks like the Superstar the Timberwolves though they were drafting. However don't be surprised if he disappoints, today I consider him a GPP only play.
- Cole Aldrich $3700 - With Deandre Jordan getting the night off along with the rest of the Clipper's main starters, Aldrich makes the most obvious "chalk" play of the day. Unfortunately fanduel only has one center spot, so on a day with extreme value all over, I'm shocking not 100% exposed to Aldrich, but he's still the clear cut best value of the day on the board. The clippers will need his size again a big Utah team, and they're likely wanting to get him playing time anyway. This is about as safe of a pick as you can get.
- Jusuf Nurkic $4400 - With Darrell Arthur out, and Kennith Faried apparently having his minute "significantly cut" the nuggets are going with a gigantic lineup today with Nurkic and Jokic starting together. I worry a little big about them cannibalizing each other's stats, if Nurkic gets 30+ minutes tonight he's an outstanding play against a depleted Spurs team. Once again though, it's hard to play value at center today due to such extreme value on the board, but the upside of that is that Nurkic may be very low owned despite getting his first start of the season making him an excellent GPP play.
- Boban Marjanovic $3500 - This is strictly a GPP play. However Diaw, Aldridge, and the rest of the Spurs high usage players are out. Additionally...I'm HIGHLY suspicious of Tim Duncan's status. Duncan may in fact suit up a but I personally don't expect him to play much if at all. If I'm correct, that should leave a huge opportunity for Boban to finally get a big minutes game. Going up against an inexperienced Denver frontcourt, Boban boasts a per 36 minute stat line of 21.2pt, 14.1reb, 1.5ast, 1.5blk, and 1stl with just 2.2TO. That would be 43.92FDP if such a miracle occurred. For whatever reason Popovich has refused to give him big minutes, but if he does Boban is a 10x time bomb waiting to happen, and with everybody likely on Aldrich today he could make for a great contrarian play.
That's it for today. Good luck to everybody on what's bound to be a crazy and random day of NBA DFS.