WRs with 10+ Games & Top 50 Finishes Since 2014

Gabriel Morency previews the 2017 San Francisco 49ers from a betting perspective. Can they win more than 4.5 games? Will their defense improve on their putrid 2016 performance? Find out all that and more here! WRs rant at 2:53

There have been 18 WRs that have played in at least 10 games each year, since the 2014 season, and finished as a top 50 WR using PPR scoring.  Of those 18, just two wide receivers have increased their seasons total points each year:

WR2014201520163yr
Avg
2017
Proj
ADP
Michael Crabtree162.2231.2237.3210.2223.552.1
Pierre Garcon161.2185.7201.1182.7198.486.9

Crabtree has finally lived up to the hype since coming out of Texas Tech in 2009.  The Raiders have a great thing going on offense with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Crabtree.  I am not sure he can outperform himself for a fourth straight season, but I would imagine he falls somewhere between his 3 year average and his projection.  He is a solid pick at his ADP.

Garcon was quietly impressive during his stint with the Redskins.  Among WRs, he ranks 12th in targets and 9th in receptions since 2012, However, he is now wearing a 49ers uniform,  They were dead last in WR fantasy points last year and 3rd worst the year before that.  The last time they had quality receivers was when Crabtree and Anquan Boldin were catching passes from Colin Kaepernick in 2014.

Garcon is a huge question mark, and not worth the risk at the end of the 7th, beginning of the 8th round.  I would prefer to grab Frank Gore or Theo Riddick at RB but if you must have a WR here, give me Randall Cobb, Eric Decker or DeSean Jackson.

Here are the 16 other WRs that have played in at least 10 games and finished as a top 50 WR using PPR scoring since 2014:

WR2014201520163yr
Avg
2017
Proj
ADP
Antonio Brown378.1382.2307.3355.9308.14.2
Julio Jones299.4371.1259.9310.1290.35.9
Odell Beckham297.0319.3298.6305.0287.55.2
Mike Evans245.1212.8300.1252.7278.87.9
A.J. Green209.3275.7186.4223.8269.910.2
T.Y. Hilton260.5211.4271.8247.9259.217.8
Doug Baldwin167.3268.9249.0228.4245.126.4
Demaryius Thomas338.9271.4228.3279.5240.633.5
Jarvis Landry189.4268.0233.5230.3233.638.6
Julian Edelman222.6174.5232.3209.8233.158.2
DeAndre Hopkins233.0329.1197.4253.2229.724.1
Golden Tate259.1211.4223.1231.2228.551.6
Emmanuel Sanders299.8228.4212.6246.9211.677.7
Brandon Marshall181.1343.2156.7227.0194.276.3
Jordan Matthews202.2232.7158.1197.7179.8116.8
Anquan Boldin219.6171.9173.4188.3FAFA

Landry is Ryan Tannehill's favorite target and just by volume alone is going to put up points.  He is one of 11 WRs with 400 targets since 2014.

Hopkins projection is low because he has a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson battling Tom Savage in camp.  It's not exactly like Nuk has ever had a good QB and I would expect his season total to be closer to his 3 year average than his projection.  A risky pick for sure at the 2/3 turn.

Both the Broncos WRs are the only ones on this list to see their fantasy point totals decline in back to back seasons.  Makes sense when you go from healthy Peyton Manning, to half Manning half Brock Osweiler to Trevor Siemian.  They were both top 20 WRs last year and there is no reason to doubt they can't both finish in the top 24 again.  They are safe, but not sexy picks at their ADP.  I would much rather have DT than Keenan Allen and give me Sanders over Donte Moncrief/Jeremy Maclin.

Matthews now has veterans around him in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith.  That might scare you away as he could possibly see a decrease in targets, but the quality of those targets should increase.  He has seen 100 targets in all three seasons, including when Jeremy Maclin was on the team. This will also be the first time in his career that he will catch passes from the same QB (Carson Wentz) two years in a row, after starting his career playing with Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford.  If Kenny Britt and Adam Thielen are gone in the 10th/11th round, draft Matthews with confidence.

Stats via FFToday.com
Projections and ADP via FFAnalytics R Package

RBs with 10+ Games & Top 50 Finishes Since 2014
Fantasy Football Michael Crabtree