Fantasy Football - Third Year WRs

What can you expect from Miami WR DeVante Parker in 2017? The RotoExperts take a closer look.

Rumor has it that WRs breakout in their third year in the league.  Last year, it was Davante Adams blowing up for 12 touchdowns, DeAndre Hopkins the year before with 1,500 yards & 11 scores and in 2014, T.Y. Hilton averaged 16.4 yards per reception.  This year, there are plenty of candidates poised for a breakout season, but how many of them are going to be on your fantasy football roster?

Fantasy Football Calculator ADP

2017 Fantasy Football Projections for 3rd Year Receivers

PlayerTeamProjADP
Amari CooperOAK240.918.6
Stefon DiggsMIN208.164.2
Kelvin BenjaminCAR207.971.3
Willie SneadNO200.560.2
DeVante ParkerMIA194.987.5
Cameron MeredithCHI194.694.5
Jamison CrowderWAS191.456.5
Tyrell WilliamsLAC183.8109.6
Tyler LockettSEA176.3159.8
JJ Nelson ARI139.3162.6
Devin FunchessCAR132.1
Phillip DorsettIND131.6
Adam HumphriesTB119.5
Seth RobertsOAK117.7
Chris ConleyKC116.5
Projections via Fantasy Football Analytics R Package
ADP vis Fantasy Football Calculator

Cooper took the league by storm as a rookie out of Alabama and has posted back to back 1,000 yard seasons, in his first two years. He is just the 5th WR since 2000 to do that, joining Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, A.J. Green and Marques Colston.  What he has not done is hit double digit touchdowns yet, thanks to Seth Roberts stealing all the red zone targets.

Diggs is ready for the main stage entering his 3rd year, 2nd with QB Sam Bradford.  He saw 111 targets in 13 games last year and averaged 14.9 PPR points per game, good for WR13.  He has only scored 7 touchdowns in two years, but if he can set a career high in TDs this year (5 or more) he will have unbelievable value with an ADP ~60.

Benjamin's sophomore slump still produced 940 yards and 7 touchdowns.  If that is his floor, the ceiling is the roof!  Benjamin is the next WR off draft boards after Diggs.

Snead has seen 100  targets in each of his first two seasons.  Only 20 WRs have seen that much volume to start their careers since 2000.  With Brandin Cooks gone, Sneed could see 30, 40 or even 50 more targets in 2017 to build on 895 yards and four touchdowns.  His ADP is slightly ahead of Diggs and Benjamin.

Click here to read a post I wrote on Meredith back in May:
Meredith posted four 100 yard games last year, twice in back to back weeks. In weeks 3 & 4, he totaled 20 catches (27 targets) and gained 243 yards and a TD against the Colts and Titans.  Brian Hoyer was the Bears QB for those two games.
There is much love for Crowder in Washington now that Kirk Cousins lost DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon this offseason (214 targets).  He saw 99 targets even with those guys around and scored 7 touchdowns.


Most PPR Points by Third Year WRs

PlayerYearTmTgtRecYdsTDCtch%Y/TgtPoints
Mike Evans2016TAM1739613211256%7.6252.1
Odell Beckham2016NYG16910113671060%8.1247.2
Davante Adams2016GNB121759971262%8.2209.2
Brandin Cooks2016NOR117781173867%10.0204.3
DeAndre Hopkins2015HOU19211115211158%7.9273.6
T.Y. Hilton2014IND131821345763%10.3217.5
Alshon Jeffery2014CHI1458511331059%7.8215.8
A.J. Green2013CIN1789814261155%8.0257.6
Dez Bryant2012DAL1389213821267%10.0256.2
Demaryius Thomas2012DEN1439414341066%10.0250.4
Eric Decker2012DEN1228510641370%8.7226.9
Victor Cruz2012NYG1438610921060%7.6212.2
Mike Wallace2011PIT114721193863%10.5203.3
Steve Johnson2010BUF1418210731058%7.6208.3
Sidney Rice2009MIN121831312869%10.8220.7
Steve Smith2009NYG1571071220768%7.8217.5
Greg Jennings2008GNB140801292957%9.2223.2
Brandon Marshall2008DEN1811041265658%7.0214.5
Braylon Edwards2007CLE1548012891652%8.4264.9
Lee Evans2006BUF137821292860%9.4218.2
Roy Williams2006DET151821310754%8.7214.0
Anquan Boldin2005ARI1711021402760%8.2233.2
Javon Walker2004GNB1448913821262%9.6254.7
Chad Johnson2003CIN1549013551058%8.8240.5
Santana Moss2003NYJ1177411051063%9.4207.5
Plaxico Burress2002PIT144781325754%9.2213.5
Laveranues Coles2002NYJ134891264566%9.4200.9
David Boston2001ARI175981598856%9.1256.8
Torry Holt2001STL133811363761%10.3218.8
Kevin Johnson2001CLE129841097965%8.5205.7
Marty Booker2001CHI1571001071864%6.8205.1
Randy Moss2000MIN1297714371560%11.1272.2
Stats via Pro Football Reference