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The Julio Jones Effect

So I broke down Matt Ryan’s numbers for the five games Julio Jones was on the field and pulled out a few nuggets.


  • In the first five games (when Julio played), Ryan threw two touchdowns in each one of those games.
  • In the final eleven games (when Julio didn’t play), Ryan only threw two or more touchdowns in 5 of those games.
  • Ryan tossed approximately 40% of this touchdowns in the first five weeks of the season and was on pace to finish with 32 scores before Julio went down.

Passing Yards:

  • Ryan racked up 300+ yards in 4 of the 1st 5 games
  • Only topped 300 yards in 3 of the final eleven games.


  • 1st 5 Games: Ryan threw only three interceptions (paced for 9.6 for the season).
  • Final 11 games, 14 picks (on pace for 20.4 picks).

Yards Per Passing Attempt:

  • Averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt over the first five games, which ranked 9th in the league just behind Drew Brees (7.9).
  • 6.8 yards per pass attempt over last 11 games—put him behind Christian Ponder.

Obviously, Ryan should produce significantly stronger stats if he has Julio on the field all season. I get that. But what I don’t get is why so many are overlooking him this season. Julio’s healthy, and so is Roddy.

Loss of Tony Gonzalez:

Many think of Gonzalez as the guy who converted first downs and kept drives alive. Truth is, he was responsible for only 56 of the Falcons’ 330 first downs. His loss can be absorbed by Harry Douglas who caught 80+ passes last year.

Stop drafting Andrew Luck in the 5th when you have Matt Ryan in the 7th. Just stop it.

This article was written by is powered by a guy who spends way too much time dissecting stats so he can give you a fresh look at players for your fantasy football team.  Follow him on twitter @FieldandCourt

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