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NFL Week 17 DFS Hail Mary Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where DFS advice is always free!

Hail Mary plays are always a fun avenue to look for deep values at the skill positions.  Hail Mary plays are defined by me as a player with a price tag of $3500 or less.  I will occasionally cheat by one or two hundred dollars.

Both Rueben Randle and Zach Ertz paid off last week as HM plays I recommended.  It is time to dig into Week 17 to find that deep discounted player we can fire into our line up in hopes of hitting pay dirt with minimal investment.

1.  Jonas Gray ($3000)

Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5

This is not a great match up at all for the Jaguars but there appears to be an opportunity for a big workload for just $3000.  The Jags OC has said he wants to get a good look at RB Jonas Gray this week.  When Gray finds the hole, he is a strong runner making the most of his opportunities.

Staying conservative with projections:

  • 3.5 YPC x 20 carries  = 70 rushing yards
  • 3 catches for 20 yards
  • Total DK Points: 12.5

As you can see, if Gray does in fact get the workload we are predicting, reaching 4x value is a very reachable task.  TJ Yeldon did not practice on Thursday and is not expected to play in Week 17.  Denard Robinson came up short in his time filling in for Yeldon.  The Jaguars want to see what they have in Jonas Gray as they begin their plans for the 2016 season.  Jonas Gray is a great play this week for both his price and expected volume.

2. Keshawn Martin ($3000)

New England -8
Miami 44.5

Due to a rash of injuries at the WR position, the Patriots are once again looking as far into the well as possible for pass catchers.  Keshawn Martin saw 11 targets last week converting seven of those into catches for 68 yards.  Martin is a smaller receiver (5'11" 189 lbs) but has very good speed (4.45 40).  Martin should see plenty of targets once again this week with Amendola and Edelman both out.  Brandon LaFell decided he wasn't going to catch the ball this year.  That leaves Martin as the last man standing not name Gronkowski to catch the ball.  Martin could have a very nice day easily surpassing 3x value and possibly hitting 5x value if he can turn one his receptions into a TD.

3.  Nate Washington ($3600)

Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5

Cecil Shorts has been ruled out for Week 17.  That leaves Washington as the WR opposite of DeAndre Hopkins this week.  In Weeks 7 and 8 when Shorts was out earlier this season, Nate Washington totaled 201 yards and 3 TD's.  Brian Hoyer is back at the helm for the Texans which is an upgrade for all of the Texans skill position players.  Washington has a great price of $3600 and could easily match the production of a WR double his price.  He is a great value this week and a very strong HM even though he is $100 over the $3500 threshold.

4.  Terrance Williams ($3300)/Brice Butler ($3000)

Washington 40
Dallas -4

I am going to cheat in a slightly different fashion this time around.  Dez Bryant has been sent to the IR so he is able to begin his healing process sooner allowing him to be 100% for the 2016 season.  The Cowboys will move the ball to some extent.  How much, I am not certain.  Kellen Moore has averaged 172 passing in his two starts.  That really isn't a ton of yards to be shared among team mates.  While I do feel like the running game will be used more so than the passing game, Moore will have to pass the ball to get 1st downs.  Williams caught 4/10 targets last week while Butler similarly caught 4/9.  It is unlikely either have a huge 100+ yard multiple performance type day but Jay Gruden has made it quite clear the starters will see limited action in Week 17.

Dallas has no business being favored in this game yet they are giving four points to the much better Redskins.  Look for one of these two WR's to lead the team in receiving.  Due to the uncertainty of which one will emerge, I strongly suggest not using them in your cash line ups. They are a much better option as a coin flip for your GPP line ups.

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