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NBA DFS Fanduel Value Plays for 3/31/16

Wednesday night saw some huge million dollar tournaments on what was a seemingly awful NBA DFS slate. I saw a lot of people get thrown off by some traps which kept cash lines low. I knew something was fishy when I saw my cash lineup which only did modestly okay in GPP actually placed me 1st in my double up. There was little love for the guys I thought were safe and high ownership on some guys I can't imagine playing in a cash lineup. That said while I mostly avoided the traps out there but fell for the Dwight Powell trap pretty hard. Sure am wishing I put my Dwight Powell money into John Henson, Darrell Arthur, Nene, or just about anybody else. I would have had a much better evening.  I also was much too heavily invested in Devin Booker and Giannis, but I have no regrets with those.

Overall did very well though due in most part to being heavily invested in good value guys like Derrick Williams, J.J. Barea, Tim Frazier, Justin Anderson, Will Barton, and my MVP that I had in more than half my lineups, P.J. Tucker. Needed all those higher priced guys too, but that's not what we talk about here. 

Thursday is going to be an interesting slate. The Clippers have apparently chosen to rest their key players in Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, and DeAndre Jordan making for not only some huge value plays for the Clippers, but totally turns what would have been a great game into a should-be blowout. Navigating this carefully is the key to victory most likely on this slate so be careful and good luck. As always this time of year watch for last minute news as it's a near guarantee at this point of the season. We had some last minute tidbits on wednesday that went widely ignored(like Teletovic being out opening up extra time/usage for Tucker). Don't set and forget.

Make sure to check out today's FanDuel GPPs and if you're not already a member of FanDuel go ahead and sign up through that link. I also just started a DFS twitter account - follow me @Yolo_Contendere

PG Values

  • Tim Frazier $4000 - Frazier's price has inexplicably gone unchanged so he's certainly going to keep appearing on this list until it does. He hit 6.5x value against the Spurs on weds so in a matchup against Denver on thursday how can you resist? Also he seems to be in many ways out playing Toney Douglas and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a start soon. While others might go gaga for Austin Rivers, I think it would be wise to stick with somebody who's already providing great value for a while now. 
  • Austin Rivers $3600 - I don't actually like this pick so much but feel it needs mentioning. Rivers could and likely should see near 40 minutes, and that's not something you should ignore. With Paul and Reddick out it's a big opportunity for him so I don't recommend ignoring him entirely. But beware that when this has happened before, and he's got the big minutes, he hasn't really done too much with them. I would go as far as to say he's not that good of a basketball player, and probably wouldn't get so many minutes if his dad wasn't literally the head coach. But his dad is the head coach so....Can't entirely sleep on him.
  • Shane Larkin $3900 - I like Larkin a lot here. His minutes keep trending up and he keeps hitting value without trouble since he began starting again. He's starting to look like a legitimate basketball player with a future in fact. For some reason, like Frazier, his price hasn't jumped much yet. If it's a decision between Rivers and Larkin, I take Larkin as the better bet.
Honorable Mention - D.J. Augustin

SG Value

  • Jamal Crawford $4700 - You may remember I just said Rivers has not done well in these spots where Paul and/or Reddick is out. Crawford on the other hand has and is a fantastic play. He's excellent in these position and his ceiling goes way up as well. He got 40 minutes and put up 55.2 points against detroit in a similar situation earlier this yea. Because of tremendous value elsewhere I understand if you spend up a bit more at SG but Crawford is in near must play territory for me. 

SF Values

  • Jordan Hamilton $3600 - Hamilton got 26 FDP in 30 minutes after getting his first start as a Pelican. He's looked quite good and high usage since he's joined the team. I only really like this pick if he starts but I see no reason he wouldn't. On a depleted team his minutes are relatively safe though Ennis gives me worry.
  • Wesley Johnson $3600 - Johnson should be forced into heavy minutes in this game out of necessity. Remember not only are paul/reddick/jordan out but Paul Pierce is already injured as well. Johnson saw 28 minutes weds so I think he could be looking at close to 40. The former #4 overall pick might be a huge bust but if he sees near 40 minutes with increased usage, he should make value just fine.
  • Jeff Green $4500 - Green is in the exact same situation as Johnson except that Johnson is likely to see time at SG and SF whereas Green will see time at SF and PF. So they could quite possibly share the court quite a bit and both play near 40 minutes. Green is a fairly high ceiling player so I certainly think he's in a good spot here. 
Honorable Mention - Michael Beasley, Luke Babbitt 

PF Values

  • Ed Davis $4600 - More values may pop up throughout the day but for now Ed Davis is the only one I like. He's been quite hot lately and could be a good way to save at a position that doesn't have much to offer on this slate. 
  • LATE ADDITION: Thomas Robinson $4000 - This only applies if they choose to start him again, but that looks a lot more possible with Brook Lopez being ruled out for "rest". Whenever T-Rob starts or gets minutes he seems to perform very well, getting 47.9 and 36.4 in his last two starts. Maybe the Nets will finally realize he's worth giving some extended floor time to, though they could also opt to start Willie Reed or Henry Sims. I would ignore Sims but feel free to start Reed if he draws the start over T-Rob. If T-Rob is starting though, I would lock and load him even in a somewhat tough matchup with cleveland. Also either way, Thaddeus Young becomes an interesting play without Lopez, especially if they don't start Robinson.  
Honorable Mentions - Andrew Nicholson

C Values

  • Cole Aldrich $3500 - This is as good a value as I can imagine. With Jordan out Alrich will be trust into action. It's not a great matchup but that really shouldn't matter. At minimum price he's in a spot where earlier in the season he put up 32 and 42 FDP in just 24 and 28 minutes. This time he may play similar minutes, but he could easily see more. He's been playing very well in the time he gets for the Clippers and they may reward him with upwards on 30 minutes playing time. I highly recommend you play Cole Aldrich
Honorable Mentions - Alexis Ajinca

Good luck to everybody!