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Potential Bust From Each of the First Six Rounds

Round 1

Todd Gurley debuted in Week 3 for the Rams, taking six carries for 9 yards and added a 5 yard reception.  In the four weeks that followed, Gurley rushed for 566 yards, gaining at least 128 in each and scoring three touchdowns.  That accounted for 55% of his 1,106 rushing yards as a rookie.  He failed to gain 90 yards on the ground in 7 of his final 8 games.  He rushed for 140 against the Lions in week 14.  So 69% of his rushing yards came in five of 12 games played (ignoring his debut).  For seven weeks, Gurley averaged 55.85 rush yards but he did find the endzone five times.  The Rams offense did little to get better in the offseason, despite drafting Jared Goff, Tyler Higbee, Pharoah Cooper and Michael Thomas.  The O-Line needs to get better, and for now Case Keenum is the starting QB in week 1. By no means do I think Gurley will have a bad year, but of all the options available early in the first round, especially with DeAndre Hopkins still there at pick 4, I would feel much better letting another owner draft Gurley.

Devonta Freeman was a workhorse last season, with 264 carries and 73 receptions for a total of 1,639 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, Tevin Coleman is healthy and will see plenty of carries to keep Freeman fresh throughout the season. Freeman missed week 12 last season against the Vikings, and Coleman drew the start. Tevin was very impressive, rushing for 110 yards on 18 carries. Freeman is a very good player, especially in PPR leagues, but with Coleman ready to play a bigger role this year, Freeman no longer has second round value.  I will let another owner draft him and add Amari Cooper or Brandin Cooks to my roster.

Julian Edelman without Tom Brady is a recipe for disaster.  We watched Jimmy Garoppolo play in the preseason on Thursday and were reminded of just how good Brady is.  Garoppolo will rely heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett with Dion Lewis swinging out of the backfield.  I think by week 5, whoever drafts Edelman will have tried to trade him.  If owners who draft him get impatient, pull the trigger on a deal!

Getting a running back in the fourth round who was third in the NFL in carries with 266 is great value right? Well, maybe not this year. Latavius Murray was a high volume running back for the Raiders last year. Despite all the carries, he barely broke 1,000 yards. The Raiders were interested in bringing in Doug Martin this offseason which should be an eye opener. It might be due to the fact that Murray rushed for 3 yards or less on nearly 50% of his carries or that he breaks down late in game - he averaged just 2.2 yards per carry in fourth quarter last season. Rookie DeAndre Washington should help take some of the load off of Murray's shoulders.  Whatever you do, don't rely of any 4th round running back as your RB1!

As much as I want to root for the guy, Arian Foster can not be relied on in 2016.  He has played in just 25 games over the past three seasons.  Jay Ajayi is going in the 8th round and a much safer option if you insists on a Dolphins RB.  I would prefer to draft Giovani Bernard or Ryan Mathews in the 5th.

Round 6
Giovani BernardJosh GordonAllen HurnsRyan MathewsDrew BreesDeAngelo WilliamsJonathan StewartEmmanuel SandersDelanie WalkerJeremy HillCoby FleenerJohn Brown

Delanie Walker had a breakout year at the age of 31. A career high 93 receptions. his first 1,000 yard season and tied his career high with six touchdowns. Walker was targeted 133 times, which was top 15 in the NFL and most among tight ends. At 32 years old, it's hard to image he will put up similar numbers, especially with the Titans improving their WR corps - adding Rishard Matthews, Andre Johnson, and drafting Tajae Sharpe.  They are adding to a group that features Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Dorial Green-Beckham. Tennessee also addressed their lack of running game by signing DeMarco Murray and drafting Derrick Henry. The Titans offense will have plenty of options, so Marcus Mariota will be spreading the ball around, and the offense should be led by the running game.

ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator Potential Fantasy Football Busts