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NFL DFS FanDuel Week 4 - Projections vs Cost

Consensus figures were generated by first scraping raw projections from the following publicly available sources:
  • CBS
  • ESPN
  • FantasyPros
  • Fantasy Sharks
  • Fox
  • numberFire
  • Yahoo
For each source, raw projections were converted to fantasy points using FanDuel's scoring system. Consensus projections were then calculated by simply taking the average of the individual sources. Projections that combine multiple sources have been shown to be more accurate than any single source by itself, consistent with the wisdom of the crowd.

The blue line is the linear regression line (or line of best-fit) for projected points vs. FanDuel cost. Just a simple model for gauging the relationship between a player's fantasy point total from his salary. For example, in week 4, we expect a QB who costs $7500 to score about 16.5 fantasy points.

The shaded area is the 95% confidence interval for predicted values from this linear regression model. So, for example, we expect with 95% confidence that a QB costing $7500 should score somewhere between 16 and 17 fantasy points. The more scatter, the less confident we are in the relationship between projected points and cost.

The line helps to visually distinguish between players who are undervalued and those who are overvalued. Players who fall outside of the shaded area are considered to be statistically significant outliers. For example, this week Kirk Cousins is undervalued while Matt Ryan is overvalued. Joe Flacco is appropriately valued since his dot falls right on the regression line.

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NFL Week 4 DFS QB Projections vs Cost

Philip Rivers is the only QB that all sites agree will score 20+ points.  Cam Newton had the two highest point projections at 26 (FantasyPros) & 24 (numberFire) but Fox has him just under 19 points.  Despite the high ankle sprain, Fox is the only site projecting Russell Wilson to post 20+ points (21.93) while every other site has him below 19 and some even as low as 16.4 (Fantasy Sharks).

NFL Week 4 DFS RB Projections vs Cost

Nearly every site is expecting Le'Veon Bell to return and dominate the game, except for numberFire.  Their 15.38 projection is only one below 17 points.  Fox has him over 18 points while ESPN has him at 17.9.  Lamar Miller has projections as high as 18.45 (ESPN) and as low as 11.02 (Fantasy Sharks).

NFL Week 4 DFS WR Projections vs Cost

CBS is low on Alshon Jeffery (10.13) and Brandin Cooks (11.08) despite the fact that Fox has Jeffery up over 15 points and numberFire the same for Cooks.  They love Kelvin Benjamin though, with a 15.25 point projection.  No other site has him above 13.8 (numberFire).  He is their #2 ranked WR behind Antonio Brown.

NFL Week 4 DFS TE Projections vs Cost

Hunter Henry is even more valuable then he appears as Fantasy Sharks is waiting on Antonio Gates to be ruled out before projected Henry as the starting TE.  With Russell Wilson's ankle an issue, and his lack of production since joining the Seahawks, Jimmy Graham is not projected to repeat his week 3 numbers.  Same can be said about Fleener, but the Saints have a great matchup against the Chargers.