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T.J. Warren Fantasy Basketball Breakdown

TJ Warren Fantasy Basketball

Don't be the person who misses out on the next Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler or CJ McCollum because you hadn't heard their name before. This is the type of fantasy impact Warren can have on your team this year. Before we get to the numbers, if he is somehow still available on your WW, stop reading and pick him up ASAP!!

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Some facts about TJ:

  • TJ is currently ranked 10th overall in 9CAT through 5 games (although 2 of these games went to OT)
  • TJ Warren is 23 and going into his third year. This is a prime time for a breakout, if one is going to happen
  • TJ is a critical building block for Pheonix and they are going to give him a TON of run this year (as they already have in the first 5 games)
  • TJ leads the Suns in FGA/gm (17.8, up from 9.4 last year)
  • TJ leads the Suns in scoring (22.4 pts/gm)
  • TJ shot 40% from 3 last year on 2.4 attempts/gm
  • TJ is shooting a ridiculous 50.9% from the field in his first 3 years
  • These are not all easy baskets, he has an excellent mid range game
  • Here are a couple highlight reels from this season (courtesy of /r/nba)
  • TJ's scoring thus far is not a fluke. He's shooting right at his career average, he's just getting a lot more run
  • TJ is a reluctant 3P shooter, but a capable one. If he starts adding more 3's to his game, he value improves even more.
  • TJ is chipping in 1.8 steals/36 this year, up from 1.2/36 in 2015. This to me is the biggest question in his stat line so far.
  • TJ is averaging half as many assists/36 this year than last. His assists could come up to around 2/gm, although this is less likely since he is scoring more this year
  • TJ averages only 1.2 TO/36. Nasty
  • TJ is a career 74.3% ft shooter, but is up to 86.4% on 4.4 FTA/gm this year.
  • The Suns have continuously put the ball in TJ's hands at the end of games. He had 2 and-1's in the final minute of regulation last night, to bring the game to OT against Portland. Granted, Bledsoe hit the game-winner in OT
Okay, this all sounds great! What about Booker and the rest of the talented guards on Phoenix?
  • Booker and Warren are the future of this franchise. They are both going to get theirs. So far, Warren has won out.
  • Booker is still shooting 16 FGA/gm, he's just not hitting them. Booker's presence does not mean there's no room for Warren
  • Warren has a much higher career eFG% than Booker (53.4% to Booker's 47.6%). Naturally, the Sun's want to get both of these stars-in-the-making a ton of shots.
  • Booker was out one game, but even when Booker has played, TJ still gets plenty of run
Now for some opinions...
  • Warren along with Myles Turner, are front-runners for MIP and Warren is making a damn good case so far
  • Warren and Booker will take turns dominating the scoring, with some Bledsoe and Knight thrown in the mix
  • Warren will maintain top-30 production in 9CAT and maybe even higher (in case this wasn't clear, he's ranked 10th so far :) )

So why is this sustainable? TJ is not shooting out of his mind, he's just shooting his career average (actually a little below so far). Naturally, efficiency drops when volume increases, so a slight drop in fg% is not unexpected. I think he will still maintain > 50% fg on the year, because his jumper is that damn good.

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