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5 Running Backs Being Overvalued

Using consensus rankings via FantasyPros and Fantasy Football Calculator ADP, we looked at 5 running backs being overvalued, in early mock drafts, inside the first 100 picks of 12 team PPR leagues.

Spencer Ware 

Rank: 55 ADP: 31

Jamaal Charles is now a member of the Denver Broncos but Charcandrick West is still on the roster and Andy Reid drafted Kareem Hunt (Toledo) in the 3rd round of the 2017 NFL Draft.  Ware saw 53.3% of the Chiefs snaps in 2016 and totaled 1368 yards from scrimmage, good for 13th in the NFL.

Ware saw 20+ carries just three times last year and only rushed for 100+ yards against in week 6 against eh Raiders.  He also only caught more than 3 passes in week 1.  Ware only rushed for 70 yards once after week 7. That being said, he did rack up the 13th most yards from scrimmage, at 1,368.

Ware is currently the 13th RB coming off the board and can be had early in the 3rd round after Leonard Fournette and before Marshawn Lynch. In order to draft Ware, you need to pass on WRs Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas and Jarvis Landry.

If I did not have a RB on my roster by the start of the 3rd round, I would consider selecting Ware, but if I used my first round pick on a RB or drafted Miller at the back end of the 2nd, I would go with one of the WRs over Ware. - @WeTlkFntsySprts

Adrian Peterson 

Rank: 112 ADP: 59

After a long wait, Adrian Peterson has been signed and finds himself surrounded by the best offense he has been in to-date. Now a member of the Saints, Peterson will fight for snaps with Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara as the primary receiving back.

Adrian Peterson’s 2016 season never got off of the ground, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry, while only appearing in three games. Peterson has come back from injury before, but is now on the wrong side of 30. Beating out Ingram, who is a better pass catcher and pass blocker, won’t be easy.

In a 12 team league, look to spend a late fifth or early sixth round pick to nab Peterson, after just missing out on Joe Mixon or Dalvin Cook. You will likely be forced to pass on backs such as Ingram and Doug Martin, or a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald.

Sean Payton’s hatred for Mark Ingram leaves room for optimism. Because of this, Peterson could see himself getting more of a share if Ingram winds up in the doghouse. If you plan on waiting at QB and TE, and have grabbed a couple of good backs and receivers in the first four rounds, Peterson is an option. If you still have open starting spots, look elsewhere for weekly production - @ChrisWright_F6P

Latavius Murray

Rank: 125 ADP: 74

Latavius Murray is coming off of a 12 touchdown season in Oakland. These touchdowns are the only positive that came from Murray's production last season. He averaged a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry on 195 attempts behind the fourth best offensive line according to ProFootballFocus. His counterparts, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington, averaged 5.9 and 5.4 yards per carry on 83 and 87 attempts respectively.

Murray's production was tied for fifth worst for running backs with 190 or more carries. He is now leaving a top-4 offensive line for the Minnesota Vikings 29th ranked offensive line.

The Vikings line was so bad, Adrian Peterson averaged less than two yards per carry on 37 attempts. The Vikings also produced the fifth and sixth worst running backs based on yards per carry with over 100 attempts, in Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata, who both averaged under 3.4 yards per carry.

If Murray can't produce efficient numbers for a top ranked offensive line, he is certainly doomed as a running back for a terrible offensive line.

The Vikings also went out and drafted Dalvin Cook, one of the top three running back prospects in this year's draft. Cook will undoubtedly command a large amount of volume and is trending up towards Murray's ADP. McKinnon can return to his role as the pass-catching back, where he caught over 40 passes in 2016, further negatively impacting Murray's value in PPR leagues.

In order to draft Murray, you would have to pass on other running backs like LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick. These running backs have better offensive lines and more of an opportunity to receive a higher volume. Follow the volume and offensive line capabilities and pass on Murray at his current ADP. - @AlexBHamrick

Derrick Henry 

Rank: 131 ADP: 75

Going into the 2017 season, Derrick Henry again finds himself entrenched as number two in the Titans backfield. Henry is more of a second running back than a handcuff or backup, even with only a third of the 346 total touches that Demarco Murray received in 2016.

Despite the limited workload, Henry is going in the 7th round of most drafts at this point, but his stock is decling over the last month.

Derrick Henry ADP

He is the 29th running back off of the board, making him an RB3 in most leagues. His current ADP has him going ahead of running backs like LeGarrette Blount and Frank Gore.  Drafting Henry will also most likely mean passing on other position players such as Stefon Diggs and Martellus Bennett, as well as QB Russell Wilson.

If you draft DeMarco Murray, Henry is someone you definitely want to look at. A Murray injury means a full load for Henry. However, until he demands more touches, I would look elsewhere to boost your bench in preparation for other injuries and bye weeks.  - @ChrisWright_F6P

LeGarrette Blount 

Rank: 126 ADP: 76

LeGarrette Blount had a breakout campaign in 2016, finishing as the number nine running back in PPR formats. This offseason, he joined the Philadelphia Eagles – a team with a massive hole at running back. All reports suggest that Ryan Mathews will eventually be released, while Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, and rookie Donnel Pumphery all look like complementary pieces. While this is an ideal landing spot for Blount, he’s currently being overvalued at 76th overall.

Looking back at Blount’s season, there are two red flags going into 2017. First and foremost, his 18 touchdowns in 2016 was an extreme outlier. In his previous six seasons, he averaged just over five touchdowns.  In a less potent offense, we can expect Blount’s touchdown production to regress closer to the mean.

Secondly, Blount adds zero value in a PPR format. He caught seven passes last year and never topped his career high of 15, set back in 2011. There’s no way that number will increase this year since Sproles has a stranglehold on the Eagles’ passing downs role.

Blount is currently being drafted 76th overall ahead of backs like Theo Riddick & Danny Woodhead. I would rather have one of those running backs in a PPR format because their ceilings are much higher. - @KevinH_F6P

Jody and Clay welcome one of the titans of the industry, FantasyPro’s Mike Tagliere in for Episode 6 of the Old School Fantasy Football Podcast. Tags tells us “I don’t get sick of football,” and gives tremendous advice and analysis for the 2017 fantasy season- including warning people about Dalvin Cook and comparing Paul Perkins to Devonta Freeman. Also, Jody takes a shot live on Periscope [21:30], Mike takes on Clay in 2008 fantasy trivia [23:30], answers Twitter Q&A [30:30.]