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Veterans Over Rookies In Fantasy Football Redrafts

It is easy to fall in love with a new player on a new team, especially a rookie drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.  That being said, we have no idea if players fit systems or if they can adjust to new coaches, teammates, rules and a faster game.  When it comes to fantasy football, you need to be sure you are drafting safe players, with a high floor in the early rounds.  Reaching for a rookie is almost always a bad idea, yet every year, we see rookies going very early in fantasy football redrafts.  This year, take the time to study ADP and find the veterans being drafted around these four rookies.  Pay attention to your roster construction as your drafts unfold and add veterans to positions of need while other owners add these talented, but unproven kids.  Rookies have their place in fantasy football, but it usually starts later in drafts or on the waiver wire!

Leonard Fournette Fantasy Football ADP

Leonard Fournette - The Jaguars have handed the ball of on less than 40% of their snaps for five years in a row now. Despite the fact that Tom Coughlin is in charge, when you are playing from behind as often as Jacksonville does, you are forced to lean on Blake Bortles - which is a vicious cycle. T.J. Yeldon has been the teams top RB the past two years, finishing as RB27 and RB34 in PPR leagues. Fournette will have to share carries with Yeldon/Chris Ivory and Ivory COULD steal the goal line carries. The risk is too high to draft Fournette as an RB1 (RB11 ADP 22). Instead, you have Todd Gurley and Lamar Miller to draft as your RB1 or turn to Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins and select your first (or second) WR. Fournette's ADP has risen over all of those veterans, which is a good thing for those of us avoiding rookies!

Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football ADP

Christian McCaffrey - As the 15th RB coming off draft boards, McCaffrey has the potential to be a PPR stud. However, Newton and the Panthers offense is known for taking shots down the field, not dumping it off or short crossing routes. Since the end of May, McCaffrey's ADP has climbed from the 5th round and into the middle of the 3rd round. That is up near Isaiah Crowell. All the while, Spencer Ware's ADP has fallen into the fourth round because of another rookie, Kareem Hunt. Don't forget that Ty Montgomery is still the Packers RB1 on the teams depth chart with nothing but rookies behind him. If you are uncomfortable drafting a rookie RB as your RB2 this early, there is always this QB named Tom Brady!  If it is too early for you to grab a QB, there are three veteran WRs in Demaryius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery and Allen Robinson with similar ADP.
Couldn't be happier to see the downward trend of Spencer Wares ADP considering he sits 5+ spots higher in my draft ranks than McCaffery. Ware will be the starter and do you know how many touches a game the starting RB has received in an Andy Reid offense in the 9 years since 2006 that the starter played 14+ games? 20.4, couple that with being the back at the goal line and Ware is looking at another RB2 season. I like McCaffrey but to think he's going to come in and have that kind of value in an offense that will have to change to suit his abilities is a reach in the third round - @LetoSal

Joe Mixon Fantasy Football ADP

Joe Mixon - If you think you are getting a bargain in Mixon with Giovani Bernard recovering from an ACL injury early in the year, think again. Jeremy Hill should handle all goal line duties and Bernard has been used heavily as a pass catcher over the past few seasons, who will likely earn his role back when the Bengals return from their week 6 bye. Where does Mixon find snaps after that? If you are drafting your RB2 at the 3/4 turn, I suggest finding a player who should be the teams lead back for a majority of the year, like Ty Montgomery or Carlos Hyde. If your plan of attack in LeGarrette Blount as your RB2 in at the 5/6 turn, go add a pass catcher in Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jordan Reed or even Sammy Watkins.
The rookie wide receiver class of 2014 combined with the emergence of Ezekiel Elliott last year have people in a panic. Sprinkle a little bit of rookie fever on top of a very hyped 2017 class- especially at running back- and you have a perfect storm. Regardless of the odds against it, nobody wants to possibly pass on the next big thing. Fournette, Njoku, Mixon, hell even Trubisky might be the key to a 2017 fantasy championship... But it's impossible to know which one. In the meantime, the current rookie crop is being overdrafted and the smarter owners are letting talented veteran players fall into their laps. - @dibari22

Dalvin Cook Fantasy Football ADP

Dalvin Cook - Adrian Peterson is gone, and even though they brought Latavius Murray to replace him, the Vikings added Cook in the draft. He is easily the most talented running back on the team, but Murray will get the goal line carries. However, I am taking the Patriots Mike Gillislee over Cook all Summer. He is the lone ball carrier on the team and the Patriots live near the goal line. Even if Gillislee is off the board and I want a 3rd RB, I will be sure to draft Frank Gore. If you are not looking for a 3rd back, that 6th round pick could be spent on your TE with Jimmy Graham or Tyler Eifert. For me though, I would make sure that Emmanuel Sanders and Stefon Diggs are gone before I grab my TE.  For good measure, if you are as high on Derek Carr as the Raiders are, you could pick up your QB at this point in the draft.

The one and only David Gonos has taken the time to research where the first rookie has been drafted in previous 17 NFL seasons and found that just 23.5% of the time, that rookie lead his classmates in fantasy points scored:
When you go to pull the trigger on that Leonard Fournette pick in the second or third round, maybe you’ll think twice. Consider that over the past 17 seasons, the top rookie drafted ended up being the top Fantasy rookies in scoring just four times – 23.5 percent of the time. Give me middle or late-round rookies instead and I’ll be happy!